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When a 24-year-old gets offered $250 million to write code, you know we're living in a bubble.

META just offered some kid a quarter billion dollars to help run their AI division. This is your "shoeshine boy giving stock tips" moment for 2025. 

Every bubble has its iconic warning sign. This is ours.

Here's what most traders don't understand about risk… You think the VIX protects you…You think your charts protect you…You think the Fed protects you. 

None of that matters when tail risk hits. And here’s why…

The Three Killers You've Never Heard Of

I spent 38 years learning this the hard way. Lost millions in the dot-com crash because I thought I was smarter than the market. But …

Today I'm teaching you about the three statistical risks that destroy portfolios overnight.

Basis Risk happens when your hedge stops working. You're long the stock, short the call, feeling clever. Then both positions move against you simultaneously. Your hedge amplifies your losses instead of protecting you. I've seen funds blow up in hours when basis risk kicked in.

Gap Risk is what happened to Lululemon Friday morning. Down 20% overnight. No warning. No chance to exit. One day you're up $10,000, the next morning you're down $10,000. That's a $20,000 swing while you were sleeping.

Tail Risk is the ultimate killer. It's the statistical probability of rare extreme events. The market doesn't crash from the middle. It crashes from the top, when everyone thinks they're geniuses. When VIX is low and values are insane.

Why This Time Is Different

The economy is slowing. The Fed is cutting rates not because we need it, but because they're kowtowing to market demands. We created 22,000 jobs last month. Most were government positions where people sit in corners and stare at walls.

Meanwhile, you have money managers telling Bloomberg "the market can't go down." This is textbook complacency. This is exactly when tail risk strikes.

I'm not trying to scare you. I'm trying to save you.

Position Yourself Before It's Too Late

Right now I'm sitting on 65% cash. 

My short positions are killing it. Fastenal, Schwab, NiSource - all trades I called weeks in advance. My subscribers got these calls early because we focus on risk management, not home run swinging.

The weekly MACD runs this market. When it curls over, this bull run ends. Could be six weeks, could be six months. The timing doesn't matter. The setup is everything.

When the gap down comes - and it will come - there's nothing you can do. You can't hedge it because it's too late. You can't buy it because it won't bounce. You'll be a deer in headlights.

The only protection is preparation.

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