The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) finally broke through the 6,000 in the past week, with the index achieving its new record high close of 6,000.36 on Friday, 6 June 2025!

There is, of course, nothing special about the number 6,000 as it affects the value of the index, which analysts first started predicting would become inevitable back in September 2024.

Back then, the prospect of the S&P 500 reaching 6,000 was closely linked to the expectation the Fed would continue cutting interest rates well into 2025, which didn't materialize as expected. The Fed's minions started off like they would, cutting rates by a half-percent on 18 September 2024 and by a quarter percent on 7 November 2024 and again on 18 December 2024.

But they haven't since, keeping the Federal Funds rate at their target range of 4.25-4.50%. Not that they haven't played with the idea of more cuts before ultimately pushing back and choosing to delay their next action. Right now, the CME Group's FedWatch Tool projects the Fed will avoid cutting the Federal Funds Rate until the conclusion of its 17 September (2025-Q3) meeting, at which time, it will cut rates by a quarter percent to a target range of 4.00-4.25%. After that, the FedWatch Tool forecasts the Fed will reduce U.S. interest rates by quarter point rate cuts at twelve-week intervals, with the cuts expected on 10 December (2025-Q4) and 18 March (2026-Q1).

With rate cuts thus delayed, the S&P 500 has absorbed the news of market moving events that have changed the market regime, with the result being the index has pushed its way through the 6,000 level without the additional rate cuts analysts thought it would take to get there. The latest update of the alternative futures chart shows the all-time high level of stock prices is consistent with investors focusing on the fourth quarter of 2025 as they set current day stock prices.

This shift in investor time horizon coincides with the increasing realization the Fed was going to hold rates steady through the summer, which has taken place over the last several weeks. The shift also completes the Lévy flight event we described developing in the previous edition of the S&P 500 chaos series.

The completion of the Lévy flight also rules out the potential of another market regime change like the others that have taken place during 2025-Q2, at least through Friday, 6 June 2025.

As for what will drive the market next, that's up to the random onset of new information. Here are the market-moving headlines investors weighed during the week that was:

Monday, 2 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Trump says he plans to double steel, aluminum tariffs to 50%
    • US aluminium, steel prices jump, shares drop on Trump's new tariffs
  • Oil leaps 4% after OPEC+ keeps output increase unchanged
• Fed minions say they'll get around to cutting rates later in the year, say tariffs may cause temporary inflation:
  • Fed's Waller still open to cutting interest rates later this year
  • Fed’s Goolsbee: Tariffs will drive inflation, but effects may be temporary
  • Federal Reserve’s Goolsbee sees path to lower interest rates despite recent turbulence
• Eurozone minions incented to think about making tariff deal with US:
  • Trump tariffs deals major blow to European steelmakers, Salzgitter CEO warns
    • EU says it will make strong case for US tariff cuts this week
  • Euro zone factory downturn eased in May, PMI shows
• Nasdaq, S&P, Dow ended higher despite U.S.-China trade tensions

Tuesday, 3 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • US auto sales rate plunges in May after pre-tariff rush fades
  • US factory orders slump in April
  • Trump to sign order doubling metals tariffs, White House says
  • Oil climbs 2% to 2-week high on geopolitical tensions
• Fed minions keep saying they won't rush to cut U.S. interest rates, claim tariffs are boosting inflation:
  • Fed officials beat the policy patience drum as tariff uncertainty persists
  • Fed's Goolsbee says tariffs could boost inflation quickly, take longer to slow economy
  • Fed's Bostic says current uncertainty calls for patience on rate policy
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
  • China's factory activity cools in May as US tariffs hit
  • China car dealers urge automakers to stop dumping inventory on them
• BOJ minions say US tariffs no big deal, ready to raise Japan's interest rates if economic growth picks up:
  • BOJ chief voices confidence economy can withstand US tariff hit
    • BOJ's Ueda signals readiness to raise rates if growth re-accelerates
• ECB minions getting excited for more Eurozone interest rate cuts:
  • Euro zone inflation eases below ECB target, supporting rate cut bets
• Wall Street takes home gains, Nasdaq adds nearly 1% while S&P approaches 6,000
  • Magnificent Seven power ahead as earnings outpace rest of S&P 500 by nearly 3-to-1
  • Wall Street stocks end higher on Nvidia, trade talks hopes

Wednesday, 4 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • US service sector unexpectedly contracts in May; inflation heats up
  • US labor market easing in the face of tariff uncertainty
  • Oil steady as OPEC+ hikes output while wildfires curb Canadian supply
  • Trump again urges Powell to cut rates after soft private sector job growth
• Fed hawks and doves: what US central bankers are saying
• Potential trade deal with US developing in China:
  • Trump and Xi agree to more talks as trade disputes brew
  • Exclusive: China issues rare earth licenses to suppliers of top 3 US automakers, sources say
• BOJ minions say they're thinking about holding more bonds that what they previously planned:
  • BOJ to consider slowing pace of bond tapering next year, sources say
• Eurozone minions trying to negotiate trade troubles on two fronts:
  • EU, China tackle trade issues ahead of leaders' summit
    • China's rare earth export curbs hit Europe's auto industry
    • Global alarm as China's critical mineral export curbs take hold
  • EU says US trade talks move in right direction, but metals tariffs not helping
• ECB minions getting excited to cut Eurozone interest rates again:
  • ECB to cut rates again as the case builds for a summer pause
• Stocks end flat, Treasury yields slide as traders flock to bonds after weak data

Thursday, 5 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Trump, Musk in public spat over spending bill; Tesla stock gets hit in the aftermath
  • Trump, China's Xi agree to visit each other over 'very good phone call'
  • US trade deficit narrows sharply in April; imports post record drop
  • Oil settles up as US, China teams to meet following Trump, Xi trade call
• Fed minions say they're paralyzed by inflation fear:
  • Fed policymakers flag inflation concerns, a view that argues against rate cuts
    • Fed's Harker says its time for caution on monetary policy amid uncertainty
    • Fed's Schmid: uncomfortable with looking through tariff-driven price push
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
  • The world's auto supply chain is in the hands of a few Chinese bureaucrats
• ECB minions thinking they might be near done cutting Eurozone interest rates:
  • ECB cuts rates again but hints at pause
    • For markets, end to ECB rate cuts just got closer
    • ECB governors see July pause but Sept up in the air
• Stocks close lower as Tesla slides 14% amid Trump and Musk public spat

Friday, 6 June 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • US payrolls growth slows in May, unemployment rate steady
    • Jobs data in charts: Payroll growth slows in May; unemployment rate remains at 4.2%
  • Crude climbs on US jobs report, China talks
    • US oil/gas rig count falls for 6th week to 2021 lows, Baker Hughes says
  • Fed should cut interest rate by a full point, Trump says
• Fed minions say they're thinking about rate cuts later in year, don't trust their data, and think they're too strict in overseeing US banks:
  • Fed's Harker says rate cuts this year still possible, amid data quality worries
  • Fed's Bowman lays out ambitious agenda to overhaul and ease bank oversight
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
  • China's yuan slips to 2-year low versus peers after Trump-Xi call leaves issues unresolved
  • China's exports likely slowed in May amid trade uncertainties - Reuters poll
• BOJ minions get green light to continue hiking Japan's interest rates:
  • US Treasury says BOJ should continue to tighten policy
• ECB minions starting to worry about Eurozone inflation being too low:
  • ECB policymakers debate risk of inflation going too low
• S&P 500 closes above 6,000 for the first time since February after strong May jobs data
  • Microsoft marks new milestone as market cap hits $3.5T, holds slight edge over Nvidia
  • Tesla shares gain after $152 billion selloff, but Trump-Musk truce uncertain

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the current quarter of 2025-Q2 increased to +3.8%, up from the +3.3% that it previously projected.

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