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The four-hour MACD on the S&P 500 just curved upward…
 

I have traded for 39 years. I have never seen people make money fighting this indicator. Not once. Not even me.

The market is sitting at the apex of an ascending triangle. Every short seller piling in here is adding to their losses while the algorithms position for something violent.

I call this setup "waiting to exhale."

The phrase describes a state of anticipation before relief finally arrives. That is exactly where we are. The market is holding its breath, waiting for permission to move.

The Setup Nobody Wants to Hear

Ascending triangles break to the upside two-thirds of the time.

That is not my opinion. That is the probability distribution of this pattern across decades of data.

The MACD slope tells you where the algorithms are positioned. When it curves up like this, the machines are ready to push prices higher.

The stochastic is going up. The RSI is breaking to the upside. Every momentum indicator says the same thing.

You cannot short this.

Why Shorts Keep Losing

The algorithms do not care about fundamentals. They do not care about interest rates or earnings or your bearish thesis.

They care about slope and order flows.

When the four-hour indicator curves upward, shorting becomes a wealth transfer mechanism. Your capital moves directly into the pockets of traders who understood the setup.

Every day this market grinds sideways, it fortifies the bullish case. The bears need an immediate breakdown. They are not getting one.

The Exhale Scenario

The market wants to go higher. It wants to make a new high.

I expect one of two outcomes. Either we explode 200 points in a single session and then reverse violently. Or we break the ascending triangle to the downside.

The probabilities favor the first scenario.

This is what I mean by waiting to exhale. The pressure builds until it cannot be contained. Then everything happens at once.

If the S&P gaps up 60 points tomorrow, I will not be surprised. If it runs 150 points in an hour, I will not be surprised.

The technical setup is screaming for a blow-off top.

What To Do Right Now

Stop shorting this. Step back. Let it play.

You are better off doing nothing than doing something wrong.

If you miss 200 points to the upside, that is fine. Missing a move does not hurt your account. Fighting a move does.

Wait for the exhale. Wait for the RSI to spike. Wait for the key reversal day when everything that went vertical suddenly collapses.

That is your entry. That is when you get aggressive.

Let the market dictate to you what to do. Do not dictate to the market what you expect or want to happen.

The Timeline

Give me three weeks.

By the end of January, you will see a completely different tape. The character of this market will shift once the blow-off completes.

Right now, fighting this is like pulling off a bandaid one millimeter at a time. Let the market rip it off. Let the pain happen all at once.

Too late to buy. Too early to short. The only winning move is patience.

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