The Augmented Reality Market Is Expected To Increase At Least Tenfold By 2021

Amazon.com (AMZN) made its first successful online book sale delivery in 1995. In that same year, Bill Gates edged out his friend Warren Buffett for the title of the world’s richest person.

At that time Buffett had spent 45 years building his net worth and had put up annualized investment returns that few (if any) have ever matched.

Now here we are, only 22 years later and the man responsible launching Amazon (Jeff Bezos) just passed Warren Buffett and became the world’s second richest person.

That is an astounding achievement when you consider that since 1995 Buffett has continued to grow his net worth at an impressive rate.

There is a point that I’m driving at.

I spend most of my time studying what great investors like Buffett are putting into their portfolios. My belief is that I’m likely to find the best investment ideas in the portfolios of the best investors.

Makes sense doesn’t it?

But what about the wealth creators like Bezos who jumped on a great growth opportunity at ground zero? As his (and Bill Gates) experience shows, it is a single great idea that really makes people rich in a hurry.

Therefore shouldn’t I also be on the lookout for opportunities where a company or even an entire industry is about to experience a rate of growth that is multiples of what the overall economy is capable of?

I think the answer is yes. I also think that I’ve found one sector (and maybe a company) that is on the verge of an unusually high rate of compounded growth.

Augmented Reality Is A Market About To Explode

If you are looking for a sector that is going to have extremely high rates of revenue growth over the next decade you are going to have a hard time beating augmented reality.

I don’t want you to take my word on this. I want you to read about it for yourself.

According to a study from Juniper Research market for enterprise augmented reality applications will grow tenfold from $515 million today to more than $5.7 billion in 2021.

That is a very rapid rate of growth.

Note that we are talking about enterprise use of augmented reality as in commercial application of the technologies.

That is study one.

Study two comes from International Data Corporation which predicts that worldwide revenues for the augmented reality and virtual reality (AR/VR) market will grow from $5.2 billion in 2016 to more than $162 billion in 2020.

That combines the AR and VR markets but again points you in the same direction. The numbers talked about in that one are a bit crazy.

Study three was prepared by Markets and Markets and predicts that the total augmented reality market is expected to reach USD 56.8 Billion by 2020, at a CAGR of 79.6% between 2015 and 2020. The study attributes growing demand for augmented reality technology in consumer, commercial, and aerospace & defense segments would drive the growth of the augmented reality market.

I could keep going.

Do yourself a favor and spend a couple of hours getting yourself familiar with augmented reality. I’ve linked three reports for you but there are many more that you can find with a little effort.

What I’ve discovered is that that this is a sector that is about to go from zero to fifty miles an hour in a big hurry. That is going to create a lot of wealth for some people, I figure that I might as well be one of them.

While the scope of the opportunity isn’t as large it reminds me a bit of the birth of online commerce. I can remember how in the late nineties when I first found out that someone was buying something off of the internet I scolded them because it was crazy to give out your credit card number online?

Obviously, online commerce has gone from nothing to commonplace in a very short period of time.

I think something similar is about to happen with respect to on the job employees using augmented reality to increase their productivity. Today it may seem like something that will never have widespread application, tomorrow everyone is going to be doing it.

The studies that I have provided support that.

The Clear Best Option For A Publicly Traded Pure-Play On Augmented Reality

I’m absolutely sold on this sector. I don’t know exactly how much revenue growth there is going to be but I know it is going to occur at an extremely high compounded rate over the next 5 to 10 years.

What I have a harder time with is how to profit from it.

The clear best way to get exposure as an investor is through Vuzix Corporation (VUZI). If you take a couple of hours to read up on augmented reality you will repeatedly come across the glowing reviews of Vuzix’s current product offerings.

Again, don’t take this from me. You can check this out through Barron's, PCMag and Androidheadlines. There is more out there if you take the time to look.

Vuzix received four International CES Innovation 2017 awards, for its Blade 3000 product line.

Image: Blade 3000 Vuzix Corporation

On the commercial front, Vuzix’s AR3000 Smart Glasses enable the wearer to see computer-generated information, graphics or images projected into the real world environment or upon an object that the user is observing.

If you are like me it can be hard to get your head around where this would be useful.

After doing a bit of reading though it quickly becomes clear just how many places having hands free access to information or graphics would be beneficial.

Examples would be in an operating room, a warehouse, on a factory floor, and in-the-field, where users could (already are) accessing a manual, tutorial, or image that will assist them in completing a task or locating an item, while also viewing their current surroundings and nearby objects.

I can easily imagine a mechanic needing some instructions while having both hands tied up, an assembly line worker doing the same, a doctor who is in the operating room, or anyone basically who uses both hands and needs information.

Vuzix’s AR3000 smart glasses incorporate a powerful microprocessor running Android. The wearer will be able to reach out and manipulate virtual 3D objects overlaid in the real world.

Image: M3000 Vuzix Corporation

My understanding from what I’ve read is that these Vuzix glasses are the best in class at this point.

The Elephant In The Room – The Rapid Rate Of Technological Change

I’m sold on the sector for the next decade at least. I’ve seen enough reports on current product offerings to be sold on Vuzix today.

But there is my problem as an investor. Where will technology in this sector go over the next 12 months? Will Vuzix be displaced by a better mousetrap?

The size of the revenue prize in this industry is enough to attract (and already has) some giant competition. That competition can push technological change at a breathtaking rate given the resources that are available.

Because of that while I would be willing to take a small position in Vuzix as the best available way to play this opportunity I would never make a conviction bet because of the rate of technological change.

Besides, if Vuzix turns out to be the correct way to play this even a small investment will turn into something significant over the next decade, given the astounding compounded rate of revenue growth this sector is expected to experience.

Disclosure: I don’t own any shares of companies mentioned in this article but may in the future.

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Wendell Brown 7 years ago Member's comment

You seem to miss the fact that Vuzix makes accessories, it doesn't make augmented reality. You cite Barron's, but what Barron's says is that Vuzix has the best STYLE.