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We are up over 28% this year so far; SPX up around 18%. The FOMC meeting is Tuesday and Wednesday (September 17 and 18) and market could hold up into this date.  The bottom window is the SPY/VIX ratio.  A bearish sign is triggered when the SPY makes a higher high and the SPY/VIX ratio makes a lower high; and that happen today.  Market may be “still” going into the FOMC meeting but after, may start to see a pull back.  Being patience for now.  Sold long 9/13/24 at 5626.02= gain 2.23%; Long SPX on 9/5/24 at 5503.41.   Join me on TFNN.com Tuesday 3:30 Eastern; Thursday 3:20 Eastern, Tune in.

Seasonality leans bearish starting on the FOMC meeting this Tuesday and Wednesday and runs into end of month.  The bottom window is the monthly SPX/VIX ratio.  It’s a bearish intermediate term sign when the SPX makes higher highs and he SPX/VIX ratio makes lower highs.  We shaded in light pink when this divergence showed up; we have a negative divergence now.  Possible downside target 5250 SPX range (noted on chart above).  Bigger trend remain bullish and new highs later this year is possible but the next month or so could be choppy.       

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The bottom window is the 50 day average of the up down volume percent for GDX.  GDX up trends are defined when this indicator is above “0”.  We shaded light green the times when this indicator is above

The bottom window is the 50 day average of the up down volume percent for GDX.  GDX up trends are defined when this indicator is above “0”.  We shaded light green the times when this indicator is above “0”.  Current reading is +13.23.  As long as this indicator stays above “0” the GDX up trend should continue.  Seasonality has turned bullish and may add bullish energy short term.       

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