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Global Deliveries Plunge

The Wall Street Journal reports Tesla’s Global Vehicle Deliveries Plunged in Second Quarter

Tesla’s TSLA global vehicle sales fell 13.5% in the second quarter compared with a year ago, continuing a steep slide in automotive sales, as the company tries to pivot to autonomous vehicles.

The final quarterly tally of 384,122 Teslas delivered missed analysts’ expectations of 387,000 deliveries, according to FactSet.

The electric-vehicle maker has struggled to reverse months of declining sales, which analysts have in part attributed to consumer backlash against the brand and its Chief Executive Elon Musk, whose role in cutting government spending was polarizing. He stepped down from his federal role at the end of May.

Tesla has turned to vehicle updates and low-cost financing to try to drum up customer interest as it faces increased competition and pressure on its brand stemming from Musk’s stint in politics.

On June 22, Tesla rolled out its long-promised robotaxi service, opening up its new ride-hailing app to a small group of customers, including social-media influencers, who took rides in autonomously driven Tesla Model Ys through a limited area of Austin.

Though it started with fewer than 20 autonomous vehicles and a standardized fare of $4.20 per ride, Musk has said the program could one day add $5 trillion to $10 trillion to Tesla’s market cap.

To get there, Tesla needs to keep selling cars, which largely fund Tesla’s investments in AI and robotics.

Musk said he expects there to be hundreds of thousands of Teslas driving fully autonomously on roads in the U.S. by the end of 2026, many of which would be personally-owned vehicles. In his vision, drivers will one day be able to lease their cars to other riders on the robotaxi network, much like Uber or Airbnb.

Tesla’s share price has swung wildly in recent months. The stock nearly doubled in the weeks after President Trump’s election, sending its market capitalization to a high of $1.5 trillion in mid-December. In the weeks after the inauguration, the share returned to pre-election levels. By spring, it was back over $1 trillion.

Tesla’s (TSLA) June China-made EV sales see first rise in 9 months

Reuters reports Tesla’s June China-made EV sales see first rise in 9 months, but quarterly fall continues

Tesla’s (TSLA), opens new tab sales of its China-made electric vehicles edged up 0.8% in June from a year earlier, snapping an eight-month losing streak, but they continued to fall on a quarterly basis in the face of lower-cost new models from its Chinese rivals.

Deliveries of Model 3 and Model Y vehicles made in its Shanghai factory, including both China sales and exports to Europe and other markets, rose 16.1% from May to 71,599 units, data from the China Passenger Car Association showed on Wednesday.

By comparison, global car sales for BYD, Tesla’s biggest Chinese rival, increased 11% year-on-year to 377,628 units last month.

Sales of its China-made EVs in the April-June period slid 6.8% on-year, the third quarterly decline in a row.

Tesla’s China-made EVs accounted for 51.3% of its global deliveries in the first quarter.

Trump Megabill Axes $7,500 EV Tax Credit after September

CNBC reports Trump megabill axes $7,500 EV tax credit after September

A massive tax-and-spending package championed by President Donald Trump and passed by the Senate on Tuesday would end tax credits for electric vehicles within three months.

The legislation, which Republicans are trying to get to the president’s desk by July 4, would end tax breaks for consumers who buy or lease EVs after Sept. 30.

Lawmakers would eliminate a $7,500 tax credit for the purchase or lease of a new EV, and a $4,000 credit for the purchase of a used EV.

I cheer this part of the bill but not because of the Trump-Musk feud. Rather, I object to subsidies in general.

The Inflation Reduction Act, a landmark climate law signed by former President Joe Biden, offered the tax breaks for EVs through 2032.

Tesla makes a lot of money selling energy tax credits.

Musk now says he might support primary challenges against Republicans who support Trump’s “big, beautiful bill”

Up and Down Observations

I have two friends discussing Tesla. One notes that Tesla is down 35.5 percent from the all-time high.

The other notes Tesla is up 71.6 percent from the recent low at 214.25.

Both observations are accurate.

Normally, I like to make some observations on the technical position, but the chart is a mess.

However, the S&P 500 made a new high. Tesla did not come close. That is a key technical point.

Tesla is no longer a leader.

Fundamentally Speaking

• Tesla is now 100 percent dependent on Full-Self Driving (FSD).But Tesla lags Waymo badly.
• Tesla is very overpriced compared to BYD.
• Tesla sales in China are plunging rapidly. The year-over-year rise is based on very easy comps.
• BYD is competitive in Europe while Tesla skid.
• Trump is slowing down EV adoption and the One Big Beautiful Act is poised to kill energy credits. This has caused a major rift between Musk and Trump.

Looking Ahead

Reuters has the key number: Tesla’s China-made EVs accounted for 51.3% of its global deliveries in the first quarter.

I expect Tesla sales in China will plunge, profit margins will plunge or both.

Tesla’s models are dated and overpriced compared to BYD. And that does not factor in possible trade war repercussions.

Ultimately, China sales will trend towards zero. not hit zero. China got what it wanted out of the relationship. It no longer has any use for Tesla.

Musk Hype

Musk has said the program could one day add $5 trillion to $10 trillion to Tesla’s market cap.

Is Musk hype greater than Trump’s? I leave that to the reader but both are off the charts.

Robo-Taxi Nonsense

Musk said he expects there to be hundreds of thousands of Teslas driving fully autonomously on roads in the U.S. by the end of 2026, many of which would be personally-owned vehicles.

What Musk calls FSD is still only level 3 compared to Waymo’s level 4.

But assume it’s true. Are people really going to buy a Tesla just to rent it out like an Airbnb?

My answer is no. What would insurance cost on that?

Waymo Surges to 10 Million Paid Rides, Tesla Has Zero

Elon Musk has been promising Full Self Driving (FSD) for decades. He is now 10 million rides behind.

Waymo has far superior technology. Anyone who disagrees is a fool or a liar. But Musk is correct that Waymo is losing money on these rides.

For now, Waymo’s technology is far more expensive. But will that price differential be significant 10 years from now? 5? 3?

Waymo has a proven safety record. Tesla has nothing. And we still have serious doubts about Tesla in rain, snow, dust storms etc.

The Trump-Musk Feud Turns Very Ugly Including a Deportation Threat

Yesterday, I noted The Trump-Musk Feud Turns Very Ugly Including a Deportation Threat

Trump is not serious about deportation, but the feud is seriously ugly.

Musk has managed to offend the liberals and MAGA. That’s not exactly good for sales.

On June 1, I noted Waymo Surges to 10 Million Paid Rides, Tesla Has Zero

Hello Elon Musk, you are now 10 million rides behind Waymo.

Please click on the above link for details.

China’s EV Costs, Tech, and Quality “Far Superior” to the West

On June 30, I noted Ford CEO: China’s EV Costs, Tech, and Quality “Far Superior” to the West

Ford’s affordable EV project faces Chinese competitors with 20 years of experience and intense government backing.

If you are going to dispute the above article, I don’t want to hear about Ford’s CEO. Dispute what he said, and that’s very believable.

Finally, Waymo is losing money on every ride. But that is no indication that Tesla would turn a profit with the robo-taxi model.

Ignore the massive Musk hype.

I repeat my opening statement: Tesla is struggling everywhere. Expect things to get worse.

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