Goldman Sachs analyst David Tamberrino noted that Tesla (TSLA) shares have recently been bouncing back amid optimism about near-term deliveries.

While he thinks Q2 should be fine and the company is likely to achieve volumes near consensus forecasts, he thinks volume estimates for the second half of the year and beyond look high considering he sees fewer levers left for the company to pull given that Tesla has already released lower-priced Model 3 variants, introduced leasing and right-hand drive orders have started.

Additionally, another step-down in the U.S. federal tax credit for Tesla vehicles is coming on July 1, Tamberrino noted. He continues to see the company achieving below 1M total units as his base case by 2025, noted the analyst, who keeps a Sell rating on Tesla and lowered his price target on the stock to $158 from $200 as he sees lower odds that the company hits his upside volume scenarios.

Tamberrino expects Tesla shares to get back to being on a downward path as it becomes clearer that sustainable demand is below expectations, he concluded.