Tesla Is Battered, Down 64% From The Top, Is The Bottom In?

Let's take a look at the technical picture of technology stocks, Bitcoin and the crypto space starting with Tesla.

(Click on image to enlarge)

Tesla TSLA weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

 

Tesla TSLA weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Tesla bounced off weekly support at the 220 level then quickly crashed strong support at the 180 level with nary a bounce.

Next support is the 140 level, then 100, then 60, then 23. 

 

Tesla Monthly Support Levels 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Tesla TSLA monthly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Tesla TSLA monthly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

At the monthly level, things look grim. If support at the 140 level breaks there's a good chance the air pocket fills all the way to 40.

There is no strong support until the very long consolidation level between 10 and 25 with strongest support at 12.

 

Massive Collapse in Used Car Prices and Bankrupt Dealers Is Coming Right Up

Fundamentally speaking, auto sales in general are crashing and Musk has his hands full with huge losses on Twitter where he is devoting most of his time. 

For discussion of auto sales, please see Massive Collapse in Used Car Prices and Bankrupt Dealers Is Coming Right Up

I suspect Tesla has a date with 60 if not 23. 

I posted some Tesla charts back on January 27, 2022 in Observation of the Day: Somehow Elon Musk Nailed the Top

Elon Musk accidentally rang a bell. Did anyone hear it?

Since then, Tesla has moved towards the support levels I suggested. There has been a price split since then so if comparing charts look at the levels not the price at those levels.

 

Nasdaq 100 Weekly Support 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Nasdaq 100 Index weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Nasdaq 100 Index weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Note that bounces happened at support levels right where one would expect bounces to happen. 

This isn't hindsight, I have been discussing these support levels since the beginning of the year. 

Technically speaking, a retest of 10500 looks likely and there is no technical or fundamental reason to expect a bounce at that level to hold. There is even weaker support at the 10000 level. 

Strong support is at the 6500 to 7500 level and I do suspect we will ultimately take back the entire Covid rally. 

If so that would be a decline of 57 percent from the top, quite modest actually for a technology bear market.

But if the Index collapses to that level, many individual stocks will fall much further.

 

FaceBook - Meta Weekly Chart

(Click on image to enlarge)

Meta weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Meta weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Support does not also hold and in bear markets tends to break eventually. And in bear markets resistance is most often a kiss of death. 

The opposite is true in bull markets where support almost always holds and resistance ultimately proves futile. 

The biggest moves tend to come out of long consolidation patterns like the Tesla 2013-2019 consolidation. 

Binance 

Meta weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Meta weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Fundamentally speaking. I see no reason for the blast higher and thus no reason it it collapses back to eleven cents.

Bitcoin Weekly Chart 

Bitcoin weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Bitcoin weekly chart courtesy of StockCharts.Com

Bitcoin is currently in the middle of nowhere. It's well above support at 10000 and consolidating a bit under resistance. 

Several breakout attempts above 2000 failed and there is no fundamental or technical reason to expect a breakout here. 

There is minor support around 15500 but there's no reason to believe that level will hold if it's touched again.

 

Collapse of FTX

The collapse of FTX is weighing on the entire crypto space.

For discussion, please see FTX US Declares Bankruptcy Too, What About the FTX Arena?

Also note Global Squabbles Erupt Around the World Over the Remaining Crypto Assets of FTX

Finally, Michael Saylor bet his entire company on Bitcoin, with borrowed money. He claims to be liquid down to a price level of $3,000 but some of us do not believe that level.

If Saylor is wiped out, I expect a big bounce in Bitcoin at that level. It will mark a short-term bottom.

For more on Saylor please see Laser-eyed Bitcoin Speculator Michael Saylor Blames Regulators for the plight he is in.

 

Liquidity Speaking 

Overall liquidity is drying up, the Fed is committed to more hikes and it's debatable if  recession hits this year or next. 

Interest rates have soared and housing transactions have crashed. 

Fed and fiscal stimulus made these blowoff tops, and there is no reason to suspect the entire Fed-inspired rally will not ultimately be taken back in technology and crypto.


More By This Author:

Massive Collapse In Used Car Prices And Bankrupt Dealers Is Coming Right Up
Binance Token BNB Price Crashes to Weak Support Levels, What's It Worth?
The Philadelphia Fed Just Revised Jobs Lower By 1.2 Million For Q2

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