Technical Market Report For Saturday, Nov. 28

Technical market report for November 28, 2020

The good news is the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at an all time high last Tuesday; the NASDAQ composite (OTC), S&P 500 (SPX), and Russell 2000 all closed at all time highs last Friday.

The Negatives

Short term negatives are hard to find. New Highs could be better, but they have been improving.

The Positives

New lows are nearly non-existent and the secondaries have been outperforming the blue chips.

The first chart covers the past six months, showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19-day EMA) of NASDAQ new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the first trading day of each month. The OTC NH moved sharply upward last week.

The next chart is similar to the first one, except it shows the SPX in red and the NY NH in green. The information has been calculated with NYSE data. The NY NH also moved sharply upward last week.

The next chart covers the past six months, showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (four-day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio) in blue. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level. At 99%, the NY HL Ratio cannot get much higher.

The next chart is similar to the one above, except it shows the OTC in blue and the OTC HL Ratio in red. The information has been calculated with NASDAQ data. At 96%, the OTC HL Ratio is also near its upper limit.

Seasonality

Next week includes the last trading day of November and the first four trading days of December during the fourth year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change on a percentage basis for that period.

The OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2019, while the SPX data runs from 1928 to 2019. There are summaries for both the fourth year of the Presidential Cycle, and all years combined. Average returns for the coming week have been mostly positive. 

The number following the year represents its position in the Presidential Cycle. The number following the daily return represents the day of the week:

  • 1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday, etc.

OTC Presidential Year 4 (PY4)

  •     Year     Day1     Day1      Day2      Day3     Day4     Totals
  •  1964-4 -0.36% 1 -0.64% 2 -0.82% 3 0.69% 4 -0.02% 5 -1.15%
  •  1968-4 0.68% 5 0.52% 1 1.75% 2 0.10% 4 0.24% 5 3.30%
  •  1972-4 0.17% 4 0.74% 5 0.15% 1 0.10% 2 0.30% 3 1.46%
  •  1976-4 0.04% 2 0.78% 3 0.01% 4 0.51% 5 0.35% 1 1.69%
  •  1980-4 0.53% 5 -1.56% 1 -0.59% 2 0.58% 3 0.63% 4 -0.40%
  •  1984-4 -0.32% 5 -0.67% 1 0.02% 2 -0.90% 3 0.12% 4 -1.75%
  •  1988-4 0.90% 3 0.65% 4 0.01% 5 0.40% 1 0.42% 2 2.38%
  •  1992-4 0.50% 1 0.19% 2 -0.16% 3 0.53% 4 0.80% 5 1.85%
  •  1996-4 0.41% 5 0.56% 1 0.05% 2 -0.26% 3 0.24% 4 0.99%
  •  Avg  --  0.40%   -0.17%   -0.13%    0.07%   0.44%    0.62%
  •  2000-4 -4.03% 4 1.82% 5 -1.12% 1 10.47% 2 -3.23% 3 3.93%
  •  2004-4 -0.48% 2 1.98% 3 0.25% 4 0.20% 5 0.15% 1 2.11%
  •  2008-4 0.23% 5 -8.95% 1 3.70% 2 2.94% 3 -3.14% 4 -5.23%
  •  2012-4 -0.06% 5 -0.27% 1 -0.18% 2 -0.77% 3 0.52% 4 -0.75%
  •  2016-4 -1.05% 3 -1.36% 4 0.09% 5 1.01% 1 0.45% 2 -0.85%
  •  Avg --    -1.08%   -1.36%    0.55%    2.77%   -1.05%    -0.16%
1 2 3 4
View single page >> |
How did you like this article? Let us know so we can better customize your reading experience.

Comments

Leave a comment to automatically be entered into our contest to win a free Echo Show.