Technical Market Report For October 11, 2025
The good news is:
- The Nasdaq composite (OTC) and S&P 500 (SPX) both closed at all time highs last Wednesday.
The Negatives
The first chart covers the last 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs (OTC NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
OTC NH By a small margin, failed to confirm the OTC all time high last Wednesday.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and OTC NH in green has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY NH also failed to confirm Wednesday’s all time SPX high.
The Positives
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in blue. NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).
NY NL; NYSE new lows reached a threatening level last Friday, however, NY NL has yet to move sharply downward.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue, and OTC NL, in brown, has been calculated with Nasdaq data.
Nasdaq new lows also hit threatening levels Friday.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of Nasdaq new highs divided by new highs + new lows (OTC HL Ratio), in red. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).
OTC HL Ratio finished the week at a comfortably positive 70%.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red, and NY HL ratio, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY HL Ratio also finished the week in positive territory.
Seasonality
Next week includes the 5 trading days prior to the third Friday of October during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2024 while SPX data runs from 1953 to 2024. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined. Prior to 1953 the market traded 6 days a week so that data has been ignored
Seasonality for the coming week has been positive by all measures.
Report for the week before the 3rd Friday of October.
The number following the year is the position in the Presidential Cycle. Daily returns from Monday through 3rd Friday.
OTC Presidential Year 1 (PY1)
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1965-1 0.13% 0.39% 0.37% 0.26% 0.04% 1.19%
1969-1 0.65% 1.26% 1.27% 0.83% 0.36% 4.37%
1973-1 -0.85% 0.01% -0.42% 0.14% 0.38% -0.74%
1977-1 0.09% 0.11% -0.81% 0.15% -0.06% -0.51%
1981-1 0.01% 0.33% -1.30% 0.22% 0.21% -0.53%
Avg 0.01% 0.42% -0.18% 0.32% 0.18% 0.75%
1985-1 0.89% 0.25% 0.60% 0.55% 0.05% 2.33%
1989-1 -1.35% -0.23% 0.73% 1.62% -0.03% 0.75%
1993-1 0.44% 0.63% 0.84% 0.83% 0.26% 2.99%
1997-1 0.18% -0.53% -0.54% -1.38% -1.93% -4.20%
2001-1 -0.42% 1.52% -4.40% 0.39% 1.12% -1.78%
Avg -0.05% 0.33% -0.55% 0.40% -0.11% 0.02%
2005-1 0.26% -0.69% 1.71% -1.11% 0.68% 0.86%
2009-1 -0.01% 0.04% 1.51% 0.05% -0.76% 0.83%
2013-1 0.62% -0.56% 1.20% 0.62% 1.32% 3.20%
2017-1 0.27% -0.01% 0.01% -0.29% 0.36% 0.35%
2021-1 -0.64% -0.14% 0.73% 1.73% 0.50% 2.18%
Avg 0.10% -0.27% 1.03% 0.20% 0.42% 1.48%
OTC summary for PY1 1965 - 2021
Avg 0.02% 0.16% 0.10% 0.31% 0.17% 0.75%
Win% 67% 60% 67% 80% 73% 67%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2024
Avg 0.40% 0.04% -0.24% 0.37% -0.08% 0.49%
Win% 61% 52% 48% 61% 56% 56%
SPX PY1
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1953-1 0.00% -0.38% 0.47% 1.14% 0.79% 2.02%
1957-1 0.73% 1.04% -0.82% -1.65% -0.79% -1.47%
1961-1 -0.28% 0.03% 0.50% 0.35% 0.04% 0.65%
1965-1 0.57% -0.02% -0.01% -0.16% 0.21% 0.58%
1969-1 1.06% 1.22% 0.02% 0.68% -0.11% 2.86%
1973-1 -1.25% 0.13% -0.20% 0.04% 0.19% -1.09%
1977-1 -0.10% -0.01% -1.16% 0.31% -0.38% -1.33%
1981-1 -0.20% -0.35% -1.64% 0.77% -0.43% -1.86%
Avg 0.02% 0.19% -0.60% 0.33% -0.11% -0.17%
1985-1 1.13% -0.16% 1.02% -0.17% -0.33% 1.50%
1989-1 2.76% -0.49% 0.18% 1.57% 0.01% 4.02%
1993-1 0.12% 0.05% 0.08% 1.16% 0.57% 1.99%
1997-1 0.12% 0.23% -0.47% -1.09% -1.16% -2.37%
2001-1 -0.15% 0.69% -1.86% -0.79% 0.46% -1.65%
Avg 0.80% 0.06% -0.21% 0.14% -0.09% 0.70%
2005-1 0.30% -1.00% 1.50% -1.50% 0.15% -0.56%
2009-1 0.44% -0.28% 1.75% 0.42% -0.81% 1.52%
2013-1 0.41% -0.71% 1.38% 0.67% 0.65% 2.41%
2017-1 0.18% 0.07% 0.07% 0.03% 0.51% 0.86%
2021-1 -0.69% -0.24% 0.30% 1.71% 0.75% 1.83%
Avg 0.13% -0.43% 1.00% 0.27% 0.25% 1.21%
SPX summary for PY1 1953 - 2021
Avg 0.30% -0.01% 0.06% 0.19% 0.02% 0.55%
Win% 65% 44% 61% 67% 61% 61%
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2024
Avg 0.41% 0.04% -0.26% 0.22% -0.10% 0.31%
Win% 63% 40% 46% 57% 51% 64%
Conclusion
The market provided a little drama last Friday; something to stew about over the weekend. Volume was impressive, could have been a record. It was too soon after all time highs to be the beginning of a bear market.
The strongest sectors last week were Utilities and Biotech while the weakest were Energy and Banks (both for the 2nd week in a row).
I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday October 17 than they were on Friday October 10.
Last week's positive forecast was a miss
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