Technical Market Report For March 1, 2025
The good news is:
- Seasonality gets positive.
The Negatives
The first chart covers the last 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NYSE new highs (NY NH) in green. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the 1st trading day of each month.
NY NH continued to deteriorate, but remained above its low of a month and a half ago.
The next chart is similar to the 1st one except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) in blue and OTC NH in green has been calculated with NASDAQ data.
OTC NH ditto.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the SPX in red and a 40% trend (4 day EMA) of NYSE new highs divided by new highs + new lows (NY HL Ratio), in blue. Dashed horizontal lines have been drawn at 10% levels for the indicator; the line is solid at the 50%, neutral level (equal numbers of new highs and new lows).
NY HL ratio took a dive into negative territory.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the OTC in blue and OTC HL ratio, in red, has been calculated with NASDAQ data.
OTC HL Ratio also fell into deeply negative territory.
The next chart covers the past 6 months showing the OTC in blue and a 10% trend (19 day EMA) of NASDAQ new lows (OTC NL) in brown. OTC NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis so decreasing numbers of new lows move the indicator upward (up is good).
OTC NL fell sharply to its lowest level in over a year.
The next chart is similar to the one above except it shows the SPX in red and NY NL, in blue, has been calculated with NYSE data.
NY NL also took a dive, but remained above its low of early January.
The Positives
The change in Seasonality is about it.
Seasonality
Next week includes the first 5 trading days of March during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle. The tables below show the daily change, on a percentage basis, for that period.
OTC data covers the period from 1963 to 2024 while SPX data runs from 1928 to 2024. There are summaries for both the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.
Seasonally for next week has been positive by all measures.
Report for the first 5 days of March.
The number following the year represents its position in the Presidential Cycle.
The number following the daily return represents the day of the week;
1 = Monday, 2 = Tuesday etc.
OTC Presidential Year 1 (PY1)
Day1 Day2 Day3 Day4 Day5 Totals
1965-1 0.25% 1 -0.23% 2 -0.12% 3 0.21% 4 -0.10% 5 0.00%
1969-1 -0.13% 1 -0.16% 2 0.40% 3 0.07% 4 -1.87% 5 -1.70%
1973-1 -0.73% 4 0.49% 5 0.37% 1 1.13% 2 0.30% 3 1.55%
1977-1 0.60% 2 0.05% 3 0.36% 4 0.57% 5 0.10% 1 1.68%
1981-1 0.53% 1 -0.36% 2 0.20% 3 0.15% 4 0.42% 5 0.95%
Avg 0.10% -0.04% 0.24% 0.42% -0.23% 0.50%
1985-1 1.05% 5 -0.03% 1 0.01% 2 -0.57% 3 -0.79% 4 -0.34%
1989-1 0.02% 3 0.68% 4 0.36% 5 0.56% 1 -0.02% 2 1.61%
1993-1 -0.19% 1 1.23% 2 0.91% 3 -0.47% 4 0.09% 5 1.58%
1997-1 0.17% 1 0.40% 2 0.96% 3 -1.03% 4 -0.27% 5 0.22%
2001-1 1.47% 4 -3.01% 5 1.19% 1 2.87% 2 0.88% 3 3.40%
Avg 0.50% -0.15% 0.69% 0.27% -0.02% 1.30%
2005-1 0.95% 2 -0.18% 3 -0.44% 4 0.59% 5 0.95% 1 1.87%
2009-1 -3.99% 1 -0.14% 2 2.48% 3 -4.00% 4 -0.44% 5 -6.09%
2013-1 0.30% 5 0.39% 1 1.32% 2 -0.05% 3 0.30% 4 2.26%
2017-1 1.35% 3 -0.73% 4 0.16% 5 -0.37% 1 -0.26% 2 0.16%
2021-1 3.01% 1 -1.69% 2 -2.70% 3 -2.11% 4 1.55% 5 -1.95%
Avg 0.32% -0.47% 0.16% -1.19% 0.42% -0.75%
OTC summary for PY1 1965 - 2021
Averages 0.31% -0.22% 0.36% -0.16% 0.06% 0.35%
% Winners 73% 40% 80% 53% 53% 73%
MDD 3/4/2021 6.37% -- 3/6/2009 6.10% -- 3/2/2001 3.01%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2024
Averages 0.33% -0.02% 0.31% -0.25% -0.12% 0.25%
% Winners 64% 50% 66% 51% 48% 61%
MDD 3/7/1980 7.49% -- 3/7/2022 6.70% -- 3/4/2021 6.37%
SPX PY1
Day1 Day2 Day3 Day4 Day5 Totals
1929-1 0.94% 5 -0.23% 6 -1.09% 1 -0.67% 2 -1.58% 3 -2.63%
1933-1 1.94% 3 -2.08% 4 3.36% 5 16.61% 3 1.76% 4 21.60%
1937-1 0.00% 1 1.38% 2 1.15% 3 -0.92% 4 1.31% 5 2.92%
1941-1 -0.20% 6 -1.31% 1 0.51% 2 -0.61% 3 1.95% 4 0.33%
1945-1 0.14% 4 -0.63% 5 0.00% 6 0.49% 1 0.49% 2 0.49%
1949-1 0.62% 2 -0.27% 3 -0.14% 4 0.14% 5 0.95% 6 1.30%
1953-1 0.12% 1 0.27% 2 -0.85% 3 0.04% 4 0.19% 5 -0.23%
1957-1 1.11% 5 0.73% 1 0.36% 2 0.25% 3 -0.27% 4 2.18%
1961-1 -0.02% 3 0.66% 4 0.16% 5 0.16% 1 -0.91% 2 0.05%
Avg 0.39% 0.15% -0.09% 0.21% 0.09% 0.76%
1965-1 -0.21% 1 0.17% 2 -0.16% 3 -0.32% 4 -0.21% 5 -0.72%
1969-1 0.25% 1 0.96% 2 0.39% 3 -1.01% 4 -0.05% 5 0.54%
1973-1 -0.56% 4 1.11% 5 0.36% 1 1.26% 2 0.31% 3 2.47%
1977-1 0.84% 2 -0.27% 3 0.49% 4 0.32% 5 0.05% 1 1.43%
1981-1 0.56% 1 -1.10% 2 0.23% 3 -0.71% 4 -0.06% 5 -1.08%
Avg 0.18% 0.17% 0.26% -0.09% 0.01% 0.53%
1985-1 1.13% 5 -0.64% 1 0.09% 2 -0.87% 3 -0.63% 4 -0.91%
1989-1 -0.61% 3 0.99% 4 0.42% 5 1.25% 1 -0.32% 2 1.74%
1993-1 -0.31% 1 1.33% 2 0.30% 3 -0.43% 4 -0.27% 5 0.62%
1997-1 0.57% 1 -0.55% 2 1.40% 3 -0.43% 4 0.80% 5 1.79%
2001-1 0.10% 4 -0.57% 5 0.59% 1 1.00% 2 0.65% 3 1.77%
Avg 0.18% 0.11% 0.56% 0.10% 0.04% 1.00%
2005-1 0.57% 2 -0.03% 3 0.03% 4 0.96% 5 0.26% 1 1.79%
2009-1 -4.66% 1 -0.64% 2 2.38% 3 -4.25% 4 0.12% 5 -7.06%
2013-1 0.23% 5 0.46% 1 0.96% 2 0.11% 3 0.18% 4 1.94%
2017-1 1.37% 3 -0.59% 4 0.05% 5 -0.33% 1 -0.29% 2 0.21%
2021-1 2.38% 1 -0.81% 2 -1.31% 3 -1.34% 4 1.95% 5 0.87%
Avg -0.02% -0.32% 0.42% -0.97% 0.44% -0.45%
SPX summary for PY1 1929 - 2021
Averages 0.26% -0.07% 0.40% 0.45% 0.27% 1.31%
% Winners 67% 42% 75% 50% 58% 75%
MDD 3/5/2009 7.15% -- 3/6/1929 3.52% -- 3/4/2021 3.42%
SPX summary for all years 1928 - 2024
Averages 0.23% 0.14% 0.26% 0.03% -0.04% 0.60%
% Winners 64% 54% 62% 52% 51% 63%
MDD 3/5/2009 7.15% -- 3/7/1980 5.95% -- 3/6/1942 5.12%
March
Since 1963, over all years, the OTC in March has been up 65% of the time with an average gain of 0.8%. During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle March the OTC has been up 60% of the time with no average gain or loss. The best March ever for the OTC was 2009 (+10.9%), the worst, 1980 (-17.1%).
The average month has 21 trading days. The chart below has been calculated by averaging the daily percentage change for each of the 1st 11 trading days and each of the last 10. In months when there were more than 21 trading days some of the days in the middle were not counted. In months when there were less than 21 trading days some of the days in the middle of the month were counted twice. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn after the 1st trading day and at 5 trading day intervals after that. The line is solid on the 11th trading day, the dividing point.
The blue line shows the average of all years since 1963 while the green line shows the average during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle.
Since 1928 the SPX has been up 62% of the time in March with an average gain of 0.6%. During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle the SPX has been up 50% of the time with an average gain of 0.6%. The best March ever for the SPX was 1928 (+10.8%) the worst 1938 (-25.0%).
The chart below is similar to the one above except it shows the daily performance over all years of the SPX in March in red and the performance during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle in green.
Since 1979 the R2K been up 69% of the time in March with an average gain of 0.7% (brought down by a 21.9% loss in 2020). During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle the R2K has been up 50% of the time with an average gain off 1.1%. The best March ever for the R2K 1979 (+9.7%), the worst 2020 (-21.9%)
The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the average daily performance of the R2K, over all years since 1979, in February in magenta and the average daily performance during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle in green.
Since 1885 the DJIA, in March, has been up 60% of the time with an average gain of 0.7%. During the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle the DJIA has been up 54% of the time in March with an average gain of 0.6%. The best March ever for the DJIA 1920 (+12.6%), the worst 1938 (-23.7%)
The chart below is similar to those above except it shows the average daily performance over all years for the DJIA in February in grey and the average performance during the 1st year of the Presidential Cycle in green.
Conclusion
The market fell again last week; consistent with its seasonal profile.
Seasonality improves next week.
The market has been behaving consistent with its average seasonal profile for the past month.
The key will be what happens with new lows Monday and Tuesday. If they remain high the decline will continue, if they disappear (to half of recent levels or less) the recent decline will be over.
The strongest sectors last week were Utilities (for the 2nd week) and Finance while the weakest were Precious metals and Electronics.
I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday March 7 than they were on Friday February 28.
Last week the DJIA was up while all of the other major indices were down. So I am calling last weeks negative forecast a tie.
More By This Author:
Technical market report for February 22, 2025Technical market report for February 15, 2025
Technical market report for February 8, 2025
Disclosure: None
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