In the latest AI-driven chapter of mania, chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) has leaped 186% year to date and is trading about 15% above its November 2021 top. At less than $50 billion in expected 2023 revenue and a current market cap of $1 trillion, the stock is trading about 44x expected sales. Pure madness. There’s no math being done here. As the 2000 tech boom reminded me, the wilder the valuation overshoots, the harder the fall after that. Nvidia collapsed 90% after its 2000 top and spent 15 years trying to make back losses.

The tech rebound has pulled the tech-heavy Nasdaq and S&P 500 higher year to date, with the S&P 500 now 27% concentrated in tech companies (compared with 33% at the cycle top in 2000). This overweight makes broader markets (which most funds and managers try to track) more vulnerable to losses as excesses correct once more.

Meanwhile, the more economically reflective Dow 30, Russell 2000, and S&P 600 indices remain negative year to date and profoundly negative from their 2021 cycle top. Canada’s TSX remains at about -10% from March 2022. The ongoing bear market for most stocks coincides with recessionary warnings from the Index of leading economic indicators (LEI), which has been contracting for 13 months.

Word to the wise: stocks have never bottomed historically before a recession is recognized and the US Fed has been cutting interest rates for many months. They have not even confirmed a pause yet.

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