A glimpse at the short-end of the yield curve shines a bright light on market stress around the debt-ceiling X-Date being dragged closer. Bills that mature within a month are dramatically bid, while Bills that mature after a potential sooner-than-expected X-Date are bidless...

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Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve itself shows that huge kink more clearly...

(Click on image to enlarge)

Source: Bloomberg

And that is reflected in the surge to record highs for short-dated USA sovereign protection costs...

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Source: Bloomberg

But while USA risk is rising, US equity risk has been falling all week (to its lowest close since Nov '21)...

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Source: Bloomberg

However, as VIX tumbled to cycle lows this week, VVIX is notably decoupling from it across today's OpEx...

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Source: Bloomberg

Stocks suffered their worst week since March 10th (SVB collapse) with Nasdaq the biggest loser and Small Caps actually managing small gains...

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Despite squeezes everyday this week, 'Most Shorted' stocks ended lower...

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Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks were the weakest this week while Staples and Real Estate outperformed...

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Source: Bloomberg

As Defensives outperformed Cyclicals...

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Source: Bloomberg

FSOC voted to tighten up regulation on the financial system (including non-banks) but while regional banks were up on the week, marginally, they are well off the week's highs...

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...and remain just drooling along at the post-SVB lows in context...

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Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields ended the week higher (with the short-end underperforming) after today's post-PMI spike changed the week...

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Source: Bloomberg

Fed Chair Powell's favorite yield-curve-based recession-signal (18m fwd 3m to spot 3m yield spread) hit its most inverted ever this week....

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-hike expectations continue to rise for next week (now 92% odds of a 25bps hike) but we also saw the entire STIRs curve shioft hawkishly (with June now at 25% odds of a 25bps hike) and the terminal rate back above 5.00%...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar saw its first weekly gain since 3/10 (but remains only marginally off the February lows). NOTE that during the week though every impulse higher in the dollar was sold into...

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos had an ugly week...

Source: Bloomberg

With Bitcoin surging back above $30,000 and then running out of steam fast, tumbling back to support at $28,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold closed back below $2000 this week, having tried and failed to rally back above it a few times...

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Source: Bloomberg

NatGas and Crude were lower on the week, along with copper, as growth fears were resurrected modestly. Silver ended the week unchanged...

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Source: Bloomberg

And we note that WTI has erased most of the post-OPEC+ production-cut spike gains...

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Source: Bloomberg

Finally, with one week left in the month of April, data back to 1985 shows that May is historically quite good for risk...

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As Goldman notes, SPX is positive 76% of the time during the month of May with a median return of 122bps, and NDX is positive 66% of the time during the month of May with a median return of 325bps.

But only one thing matters...

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So BTFD next week after Gamma unclenches as 42% of the market cap of the S&P 500 reports earnings?

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