Starbucks (SBUX) is doing exactly what it should be doing... going up!

Just so you know, when my fundamental valuations are super positive for a company, the technical data or charts always support this kind of price movement - hence my methodology of "Investing Wisely." Starbucks, like all other companies, is vulnerable to pull-backs (checkout 2012 - $61 to $42, that's about 33% and that is unacceptable asset management) and I am now once again suggesting caution.

You may want to review my articles on SBUX (just click) you will be provided with the exact history of the accuracy of my Forecasting / Formal Recommendations and much more.

Performance (my 5-Year Table) for Starbux Corp. is available by clicking: SBUX. I treat Starbux just like any other Company, and my performance is an excellent credential that I will not hesitate to move my clients' to cash when my forecast dictates.

I have completed my weekly study of my High Profile Cyclical - Consumer Services / Restaurant Companies. This is a study that is a pleasure for me to do because I have spent time and experience in the study of Growth Companies like (SBUX). Each time, it is a confidence builder for my analytics and I smile.

My objective is to identify changing trends for my forecasting analytics. Simply stated, I would like current notes on hand to quickly refer to the anticipated direction of this sector and industry group.

This week's commentary on Starbucks covers all of my indicators, both fundamentally for valuations and technically for momentum. There is much to cover to provide my best possible forecast and opinion.

Forecast & Opinion from my Study / Analytics:

Starbucks Corp. and other Restaurant Companies are tracking the marketplace well. Although SBUX is currently in a strong rally it is also an excellent company to forecast for accuracy of future price movements and contributor to my overall analytics.

Forecast w/ Performance:

Note: The below table is for your review, questions and perhaps thoughts. If you are seeking to "Invest Wisely" in my "Growth Asset Allocation Model," please email me to open a dialog on how I go about providing super performance with a very low threshold of risk.

My current forecast is quite bright. That is if my forecast for a general market - Bearish Cycle / Bearish Inflection Point is delayed! (I will be more specific upon request).

If you own or are considering owning restaurant companies, the securities have definitely been positive. Starbucks is currently strong technically, but I have some mini-reservations about my fundamental valuation, however it on a strong bullish forecast alert.

My current opinion is to hold in anticipation of taking profits... maybe at even higher prices. There will be an end but I am not forecasting an "end" at this time.

Fundamentally - ( weighting - - 40% ): My analytics (weighting 40%) for my fundamental valuation play a vital role in profitable managing money. At this time my valuations of SBUX are and remain positive. Plainly stated they are flat but comparatively very positive.

Technically ( weighting - - 35% ): Within this outstanding company, my indicators are not breaking down like with so many other companies. It recently took a hit off of its highs of $8. to a very recent $75 back to $79 and once again back to $75. This means TOPPING - sooner or later.

Consensus Opinion - ( weighting - - 25% ): My third pillar of research is one that is always distorted to the positive by most all financial analysts. That's because they are afraid of being bearish. I am not! My articles on "reality" are supportive of the below 20 year Chart.

I will personally and promptly reply to any serious investor's inquiry as to my very cautious position for SBUX.

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A Twenty Year Perspective of Starbucks Corporation

Starbucks has taken some big hits over the years...

Click to enlarge:

^{Chart Source: StockCharts.com}

Selectivity

"Selectivity" is what I preach (along with discipline and patience) and is what separates the average investor and mutual funds from the profits that come with long-hours / hard work and "selectivity."

Here are a number of the Component Companies / Peers in the Restaurant Industry Group that I focus on rather frequently if you wish to follow me: SBUX, MCD, WEN, YUM, ARCO, EAT, DRI, KKD, DNKN CAKE, RT, DPZ, PNRA, BLMN, TXRH, DENN, BWLD, THI.

If I can be of help just email me or visit my site Investing Wisely. Serious investors only please!

Smile, Have Fun, "Investing Wisely,"

Dr. Steve