S&P 500 (Index: SPX) investors enjoyed a relatively quiet, nearly news free two weeks to end 2025. The index set a new record high of 6,932.05 just before the Christmas Day holiday, before retreating 1.2% in the next week on little-to-no significant market-moving news to close out 2025 at 6,845.50. On 2026's first day of trading, the index rose to 6,858.47, just 1.1% below its 24 December 2025 record high close, as investors started the year with little-to-no market moving news that could meaningfully alter their outlooks for the year-to-come.

And, we might add, no indication of any impending geopolitical event with the potential to reshape expectations for a global industry.

Which is to say it is quite possible we'll be starting the first full trading week of 2026 with a bang. Since that will be a story we cover in the next edition of the S&P 500 chaos series, let's close out 2025 properly with the final update to the alternative futures chart for 2025-Q4.
 

Through Friday, 2 January 2026, we find the S&P 500's is tracking along in the middle of the new redzone forecast range we added to the chart a week earlier, which assumes investors are focusing their forward-looking attention on the current quarter of 2026-Q1.

The thing to pay attention to in the week ahead is how the expectations for oil prices change as a consequence to the weekend's geopolitical event. To help set that stage, here are the market-moving headlines that were setting investor expectations during the past two holiday-shortened trading weeks.

Monday, 22 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil settles higher on risk of disruptions to Venezuela, Russia supply
  • Oil price gains after US interception of oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela over weekend
• Fed minion sees continuing their policy targeting 3% inflation as reason to hold rates steady, another minion talks about sticking around after term ends until replaced:
  • Fed’s Hammack sees inflation near 3% as case for holding rates, WSJ reports
  • Fed's Miran says he will likely stay after term ends until his seat is filled
• Bigger stimulus not developing in China:
  • China leaves benchmark lending rates unchanged for seventh straight month
• BOJ minions / Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
  • BOJ to raise interest rates to 1.5% under Ueda, ex-central bank policymaker says
• Germany's automotive exports plunged in 2025:
  • German auto exports hit hard by Trump tariffs, study shows
  • German exports in machinery and autos/parts to China have declined strongly
    • The China shock hits Germany
    • Why Germany Wants a Divorce With China
• Wall Street finished higher to kick off the holiday shortened trading week
  • Wall Street advances with broad gains, tech gains continue

Tuesday, 23 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Q3 U.S. GDP climbs 4.3%, past consensus, in BEA's delayed initial estimate
    • US economic growth accelerates in third quarter
    • Robust consumer spending, rising exports fuel US economic growth in third quarter
    • Q3 GDP Unexpectedly Surges To 2 Year High On Soaring Health Insurance Spending
  • Oil steadies as market weighs geopolitical risks against bearish fundamentals
  • Copper price hits record high on concerns over tariffs and shortages
• Fed minions may ditch 2% inflation goal they haven't met in years:
  • Bessent signals openness to revisiting Fed's 2% inflation goal
• Bigger AI developing in China:
  • Global investors turn to Chinese AI as Wall Street fears bubble
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan, BOJ thinking about hiking rates sooner than expected:
  • Japan's fiscal woes may cause more yen falls, yield rises, says ex-BOJ policymaker
    • Japan issues sternest intervention warning, says yen deviating from fundamentals
  • BOJ's hawkish wink suggests next hike may be sooner than markets think
• S&P 500 notched a record close as Wall Street ended higher after GDP data
  • S&P registers record close as growth stocks advance
  • Surprise asset of the year? The 30-year US Treasury bond

Wednesday, 24 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil steady on US data, geopolitical tension
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
  • China's farmers are up to their ears in milk
  • Chinese capital Beijing further eases home buying curbs
  • China widens foreign investment incentive list to stem falling inflows
• BOJ minions maybe not so sure about rate hike plans:
  • BOJ debated need to keep raising rates, October meeting minutes show
• Dow and S&P 500 closed at record highs on Christmas Eve
  • S&P 500, Dow hit all-time closing highs; gold, silver touch records
  • AI spending, strong corporate profits, Fed rate cuts seen as key to 2026 stock market

Friday, 26 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil falls 2% on looming supply glut, hopes of Ukraine peace deal
  • Copper Hits Record in China, Jumps in New York on Supply Concern
• BOJ's chief minion wants higher interest rates, bigger troubles with fiscal policy developing in Japan:
  • BOJ chief sees progress in hitting price goal, signals further hikes
  • Japan proposes record budget spending while curbing fresh debt
• Wall Street halts five-day advance as precious metals grab the spotlight
  • Wall St ends close to all-time highs in light, post-holiday session
  • Silver crosses $77 mark while gold, platinum stretch record highs
    • How silver is traded, from stocks and shares to coins and bars

Monday, 29 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • US pending home sales surge to highest in nearly 3 years in November, NAR says
  • US economy to ride tax cut tailwind but faces risks
    • Americans in line for ‘gigantic’ tax refund early next year, says Scott Bessent
  • Oil settles up over 2% on dented peace hopes in Ukraine, tensions in Yemen
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
  • China's industrial profits tumble at fastest pace in over a year
  • China's finance ministry says fiscal policies will be more 'proactive' in 2026
• BOJ minions watching yen, markets watching BOJ minions:
  • BOJ debated need for more rate hikes even after December move, summary shows
    • Yen strengthens after BOJ minutes, markets still eye intervention odds
    • Rising Japanese Rates Are Creating New Risks For Global Markets
• U.S. stocks end lower to start the New Year's shortened week
  • US stocks end down as tech shares drop ahead of New Year

Tuesday, 30 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil prices steady as Russia-Ukraine peace hopes fade, Yemen tensions rise
• Fed minions thinking more rate cuts, QE-like policies ahead:
  • Fed policymakers judged 'ample' levels of reserves warranted bill-buying, minutes show
    • Fed officials showed deep divisions at December meeting, minutes show
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
  • Exclusive: China mandates 50% domestic equipment rule for chipmakers
• Wall Street stretches tech-led sell-off into the last days of the year
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq end slightly down in holiday-thin trade, Meta gains on deal
  • Wall Street closes slightly lower near the end of a banner year; gold rebounds

Wednesday, 31 December 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil posts biggest annual decline since 2020; Brent seen near $55 in the near term
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
  • China's Xi promises more proactive macro policies in 2026
    • China approves major projects and investment plans for 2026 totalling $42 billion
    • China allocates initial $8.9 billion for consumer goods trade-in scheme in 2026
  • China's factory activity edges back to growth in December, private PMI shows
    • China's factory activity rebounds thanks to festive stockpiling
  • China imposes curbs on beef imports to protect domestic industry
    • China to impose additional tariffs of 55% on some beef imports from 2026
• BOJ minions look back at their success in hiking Japan's interest rates:
  • Benchmark Japan bond yields extend steepest annual surge since 1994
• S&P 500 finishes with 16% gain in 2025
  • Wall Street ends year's final session lower but posts big annual gains for 2025

Friday, 2 January 2026

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil prices settle lower after biggest annual loss since 2020
  • US draws bulk of state-owned investment in 2025 as assets hit record $60 trillion
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
  • China taxes condoms, contraceptive drugs in bid to spur birth rate
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
  • Japan business lobby chiefs urge government to tackle weak yen, media reports
• Bigger trouble developing in Eurozone:
  • European factory activity ends 2025 in deeper contraction
    • German exporters face prolonged slump in key U.S., China markets
• Nasdaq falls flat, U.S. stocks battle to recover from tech sell-off to kick off 2026
  • Dow closes higher on first day of 2026, still no Santa Claus rally

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool continues to anticipate additional quarter point rate cuts on 18 March (2026-Q1) and 29 July (2026-Q3), with no other rate cuts projected in 2026.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool's first estimate of real GDP growth in the U.S. during 2025-Q4 is +3.0%. Meanwhile, the BEA's first official estimate of GDP in the preceding quarter of 2025-Q3 came in at 4.3%, much higher than the GDPNow tool's final projection of +3.5% growth for that long since ended quarter.

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