The S&P 500 (Index: SPX) fell 1.6% from its previous week's close as investors developed higher anxiety over the future of firms betting big on Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems. The index ended the first trading week of November 2025 at 6,728.80.

The state of AI-tech stocks provided the biggest market-moving story of the week that was. High-flying AI stocks got their first major reality check since April 2025. Many stocks were pulled lower as investors weighing recent earnings reports found the firms' capital spending to be higher than expected, lowering both their free cash flow and future earnings expectations.

For the S&P 500, that pulled the entire index lower because of the outsize share of just a handful of tech firms among the component stocks that make up the index.

The shift of investor focus toward future earnings can be seen in the latest update to the alternative futures chart. The trajectory of the S&P 500 moved in a new Lévy flight event, as investors shifted their attention from the near term future of 2025-Q4 toward the more distant investment horizon of 2026-Q2.
 

That shift occurred despite the continuation of mixed messages from Federal Reserve officials, which had dominated investor attention in the preceding two weeks. The week's market moving headlines capture that noise and also the investor anxiety arising over the big AI-technology related bets being placed by the market's biggest companies.

Monday, 3 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • US manufacturing mired in weakness as tariff gloom spreads
    • Industrial giants regain footing as tariff turmoil recedes
    • Big manufacturing economies struggle as US tariffs hit order books
  • US economy at risk of wobble as lower-income consumers get squeezed
    • US to pay reduced food aid benefits, but warns of weeks or months delay
  • Oil prices steady despite OPEC+ plans to pause output increases
    • OPEC+ pauses oil output hikes beyond December amid glut fears
  • Bessent says high US interest rates may have caused housing recession
• Fed minions keep sending mixed message on future U.S. interest rate cuts:
  • Fed's Cook: December live for a rate cut but will depend on incoming information
  • Fed's Miran says policy too restrictive, Goolsbee focused on inflation
    • Fed's Goolsbee is on fence about need to cut rates in December
  • Fed's Daly says she backed latest rate cut, open to another one in December
• Bigger trouble developing in China:
  • China's October factory activity expansion slows, private PMI shows
• Nasdaq, S&P ekes out gains on AI trade rally despite drop in manufacturing
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher on Amazon-OpenAI deal; Fed path forward grows murky
    • Amazon's $38 billion OpenAI deal shows it is no longer an AI laggard

Tuesday, 4 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil settles lower on stronger dollar, fears of oversupply
• Bigger stimulus developing in China:
  • China plans events to boost imports, promises 'win-win cooperation'
• ECB minions have low opinion on their ability to fine-tune economy:
  • Attempts to fine-tune ECB policy could create undue volatility, Kazimir says
• Nasdaq sheds 2% as stock valuation fears erode the AI-tech rally
  • Wall St ends lower as bank CEOs warn of possible pullback, fueling tech bubble jitters

Wednesday, 5 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Oil settles down more than 1% at 2-week lows on fears of glut
  • China rolls back, suspends retaliatory measures against some US entities
  • US service sector activity accelerates in October; employment still subdued
    • US companies step up job cuts amid uncertain economy
  • Supreme Court's Gorsuch leads conservatives in tough questions over Trump tariffs
    • Odds of the Supreme Court upholding Trump's tariffs have cratered on Kalshi
• Fed minions relax standards for big banks, thinking about more rate cuts, or not:
  • Fed finalizes revised standard for grading big banks
  • Fed's Miran continues to press for rate cuts in Yahoo Finance interview
  • Fed 'strongly committed' to bring down inflation 'expeditiously,' Powell says
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
  • China's services growth hits three-month low in October, PMI shows
• BOJ minions thinking about hiking Japan's interest rates:
  • Bank of Japan debated growing case for rate hike, September minutes show
• Wall Street rises slightly as the private sector employment came in stronger than expected
  • Wall Street ends higher as solid data, strong earnings offset valuation concerns

Thursday, 6 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • US unemployment rate rounds up to 4.4% in October, Chicago Fed estimates
  • US layoffs for October surge to two-decade high, Challenger data shows
  • US orders 10% flights cut at major US airports due to shutdown
  • China begins limited purchases of US farm goods after Trump-Xi meet
  • Oil edges up as glut fears ease despite weak demand
    • Oil demand set to peak by 2029, major supply glut looms, IEA says
• Fed minion not paying attention to US labor market and doesn't want to cut rates again, new minion wants December rate cut, another wants more inflation data:
  • Fed's Hammack sees no need to hike rates to lower inflation at this time
    • Fed's Hammack is nervous about Fed policy given high inflation
  • Fed's Miran says he expects rate cut in December
  • Fed's Goolsbee: lack of inflation data argues for going slow
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
  • China's exports seen slowing in October as front-loading against U.S. tariffs eases: Reuters poll
• BOJ minions thinking about making big changes to monetary policies:
  • EXCLUSIVE BOJ to consider scaling back ETF buying, market control in March review-sources
    • BOJ Governor Kuroda's comments at news conference
• Bigger trouble developing in the Eurozone, ECB minions say monetary policy changes are 'far away':
  • Euro zone retail sales unexpectedly fall in September
  • ECB's Schnabel says new bond purchases 'still far away'
    • ECB comfortable with rates; sees only temporary inflation undershoot, VP says
• U.S. stocks close in the red as labor market fear dominate, traders flock to bonds
  • AI rally fears and China trade woes chill stocks

Friday, 7 November 2025

• Signs and portents for the U.S. economy:
  • Private reports suggest US labor market weakened in October
  • Oil heads for second weekly loss on lingering oversupply concerns
  • US warns it could force 20% flight cuts if shutdown continues
• Fed minions say they're cutting rates to prop up US labor market, want to go slow, are worried about liquidity, and are looking in new places for economic data:
  • Fed's Musalem says policy rate has been eased to provide insurance to the labor market
  • Fed Vice Chair Jefferson: Slow approach to cuts makes sense as policy rate approaches neutral
  • Fed's Williams: Fed may soon need to expand balance sheet for liquidity needs
  • Fed in economic data hunt turns to the tried-and-true and also the new
• Bigger trouble, stimulus developing in China:
  • China's exports suffer worst downturn since February
• Bigger trouble developing in Japan:
  • Japan PM Takaichi fills panel posts with advocates of big spending
  • US tariffs likely push Japan into first economic contraction in six quarters: Reuters poll
• Nasdaq sees worst week since April as AI trade still struggles, consumer sentiment looms
  • Wall St ends mixed on signs of shutdown progress

The CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicates a 72% probability of one more quarter point cut to the Federal Funds Rate in 2025, coming on 10 December (2025-Q4). In 2026, the FedWatch tool anticipates better than 50% probabilities for quarter point rate cuts on 18 March (2026-Q1) and 29 July (2026-Q3), which is earlier than last week. The potential timing of these rate cuts remains very fluid at this time.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projection of real GDP growth in the U.S. during the recently ended 2025-Q3 ticked up to +4.0% from +3.9%, even though many economic data reports remain on hold because of the Senate Democrats' ongoing refusal to fund government operations. The BEA's official estimates of GDP in 2025-Q3 remain on hold as well.

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