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Without hesitation, SoFi Technologies (SOFI) represents one of the top performers in the market this year. At a time when many tech enterprises have struggled due in part to bubble fears, SOFI stock has managed to rise above this wall of worries. For example, in the trailing half-year period, it gained 120%. Nevertheless, recent momentum loss has investors concerned about holding the bag.

Let’s be fair about the situation. Against the wider context, circumstances aren’t exactly terrible. In the trailing five sessions, SOFI stock lost nearly 6%. That’s steep, yes, but is merely a pothole compared to the overall performance. Still, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that the security could encounter more downside.

Right now, SOFI stock trades at nearly 10-times trailing-year sales. At the midway point this year, this was metric stood at 7.4 times. At the end of the first (calendar) quarter, the multiple was 4.9. Of course, valuation ratios don’t represent universal truth claims. At the same time, investors often watch these metrics to gauge their own risk. Therefore, the sharp rise isn’t entirely insignificant.

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Still, the fundamental data is a singular, temporal narrative. It’s possible to arrange data in a segmented manner, specifically as a distribution of probabilistic states. Under this framework, the forward 10-week median returns of SOFI stock would be expected to form a distributional curve, with prices ranging from $25.50 to $29 (assuming an anchor of $27.72). Further, price clustering would be expected to be predominant at $27.30.

However, the current quantitative structure of SOFI stock is arranged as a 6-4-U formation: six up weeks, four down weeks, with an overall upward slope. Under this condition, the probabilistic distribution shifts to the right (negative), with outcomes ranging between $18.40 and $31.20.

Most significantly, price clustering would likely occur at $23.80, which is notably below the anchor. As such, it may be more prudent to wait for a better signal before reentering SOFI stock.

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