Short-Term Forecast For Thursday, March 25

Stock Market Commentary

We are 8 sessions into the beta phase decline of the short-term cycle that began on January 29.

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A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally would reconfirm the current bullish short-term trend and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that returns to the short-term low in January at 3,694 on the S&P 500 index would suggest that trend direction is in question.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart Analyses

The following technical and cycle analyses provide short-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index.

Technical Analysis

The index closed moderately higher today, moving up toward previous highs of the uptrend from 2020. Technical indicators are effectively neutral overall, suggesting that direction is in question.

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Cycle Analysis

We are 8 sessions into the beta phase decline of the of the cycle following the short-term cycle low (STCL) on January 29. A quick rebound followed by an extended alpha phase rally would reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. Alternatively, an extended beta phase decline that returns to the STCL in January at 3,694 would suggest that cycle translation is in question. The window during which the next STCL is likely to occur is now through April 1, with our best estimate being in the March 26 to April 1 range.

  • Last STCL: January 29, 2021
  • Cycle Duration: 37 sessions
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish
  • Next STCL Window: Now through April 1; best estimate in the March 26 to April 1 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

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Short-term Outlook

  • Bullish Scenario: A rebound and close well above the recent high at 3,974 would reconfirm the uptrend from March and forecast additional gains.
  • Bearish Scenario: A close below the 50-day moving average at 3,871 would predict a return to congestion support in the 3,700 area.
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