Image Source: Unsplash
 

• Instrument: AAPL
• Average Pattern Move: +6.86%
• Timeframe: March 17 – May 8
• Winning Percentage: 76%

You may not realize that Apple Inc. is on the cusp of one of its most dramatic software overhauls in history. The upcoming revamp—expected later this year—will fundamentally reshape the interface of the iPhone, iPad, and Mac, creating a more unified ecosystem. Given Apple’s historical seasonal strength during this period, could this transformation provide an additional catalyst for its stock? We want to analyze the data in more detail.

Apple’s Next Big Software Shift

Apple is preparing a significant redesign across its operating systems—iOS, iPadOS, and macOS—to create a more seamless experience for users. The initiative will modernize the style of icons, menus, apps, windows, and system buttons, with inspiration drawn from the Vision Pro software. This is expected to be Apple’s biggest overhaul since iOS 7 in 2013 and the most notable macOS update since Big Sur in 2020.

These changes come at a crucial moment for Apple as it looks to reinvigorate demand following a period of slower revenue growth.

AAPL’s Seasonal Strength

The chart above shows the typical price trend of Apple shares from March 17 to May 8 over the past 25 years, revealing a +6.86% average return and a 76% win rate. This strong seasonal pattern suggests that Apple tends to perform well in the spring months. Historically, Apple shares have responded positively to major software announcements, and with a fundamental shift on the horizon, the market reaction could be amplified.

Technical Perspective

From a technical standpoint there is a major weekly support level at 200 which is on the weekly 200 EMA and key support from December 2023’s high. This would be a key area for buyers to protect.

Trade risks

While Apple’s seasonal strength suggests upside potential, execution risk remains a key factor. If the software redesign faces significant pushback from users or delays in rollout, investor sentiment may weaken. Additionally, broader market conditions, including tech sector volatility and macroeconomic factors, could influence Apple’s performance.

Video Length: 00:02:43

More By This Author: