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Remember Liberation Day – the day reciprocal tariffs were announced? For those of us strapped daily into the financial market seat, it has felt like an endless rollercoaster ride since that eventful day. It may not seem like it, but reciprocal tariffs were unveiled a mere four weeks ago. Initially, after the April 2^nd announcement, the stock market experienced a scary free fall. Then, after President Trump proclaimed a 90-day pause on the reciprocal tariffs and walked back other tariffs with exemptions, stock prices reversed course and catapulted higher to finish the month almost flat.

More specifically, the S&P 500 index slipped -0.8%, the NASDAQ index climbed +0.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell -3.2% in April.

Although the S&P 500 was temporarily down -21% from the February peak, the index has now bounced back and is down only -5% for the year (see chart below). Worries about a recession and tariff-induced inflation have not disappeared, but corporate profits remain strong, and we will get a fresh picture of the labor market on Friday when the monthly employment figures are released. If investors obtain some tariff clarity, trade deal announcements, and/or tax-cut legislation progress, the queasy stock market rollercoaster ride could turn to smooth sailing.

Sidoxia

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