Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas said he believes the recent run-up in Tesla's (TSLA) share price is "excessive," especially in light of the headwinds to demand and earnings that he foresees this year.

He estimates the stock will, at nearly $750 per share, discount roughly 4 million units of volume by 2030; adding that his unchanged $440 price target is based on slightly more than 2 million units of annual deliveries by 2030. Investor attention has been focused on Tesla's widening lead over traditional OEMs in commercializing electric vehicles, but "very little consideration" is being given to the risks related to the global economic slowdown, according to Jonas, who keeps an "Equal Weight" rating on Tesla shares.