Quantum Computing Hardware Developers Index Down 7% MTD; Now Only +1% YTD
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Imagine a problem that would take even the world’s fastest supercomputer years to solve being solved in seconds. This is the promise of quantum computing (QC) but, while today’s leading QC firms (see below) still haven’t cracked the code on qubits, the subatomic particles that will eventually replace binary 1s and 0s, the next renaissance in computing might not be that far off.
Experts can't come to a consensus as to when QC will become mainstream due to the difficulties to engineer, build, and program QC systems, including noise, faults, loss of quantum coherence and, of course, the high price tag associated with QC systems. Some believe QC will be able to break any existing digital encryption as soon as 2029 while others speculate we won’t see commercially available QCs until 2050. According to McKinsey's estimation, the number of operational quantum computers is expected to only reach around 5,000 by 2030, so practical quantum QC is still years away but it will change the world when it arrives. Either way, the QC industry is a rapidly evolving and expanding field and, according to Precedence Research, is expected to experience growth by a compound annual growth rate of 36.9% between now and then.
There are close to 200 companies whose primary focus is on quantum Software according to The Quantum Insider, while just over 20 companies worldwide are working on quantum computer Processors and Chips. This article examines 10 of the latter in munKNEE's Quantum Computing Hardware Developers Index. The 10 constituents trade on American stock exchanges, are heavily involved in the research and development of qubits, and are presented in descending order as to their performances month-to-date (MTD), since their peaks in July and year-to-date (YTD).
- Micron Technology (MU): DOWN 2.2% MTD; DOWN 6.8% since July; UP 35.4% YTD
- began sampling its own HBM3 chips in July which are a 50% improvement in bandwidth over currently available solutions with mass production expected to begin early in calendar 2024, and meaningful revenue from this product in fiscal 2024.
- Market Capitalization: $73B
- Read: Micron Technology Memory Chip Prices Are Bouncing Back
- IBM (IBM): DOWN 2.3% MTD; DOWN 4.9% since July; DOWN 2.4% YTD
- has its own QC chips and systems, which are available for commercial use via its Quantum business unit and, in partnership with UC Berkeley, has presented evidence that noisy quantum computers such as its 127 qubits processor will be able to provide value sooner than expected, all thanks to advances in IBM Quantum hardware and the development of new error mitigation methods.
- Market Capitalization: $125B
- Read: AI Skills for All: How IBM Is Helping To Close the Digital Divide
- Honeywell International (HON): DOWN 3.6% MTD; DOWN 8.3% since July; DOWN 16.9% YTD
- has spun off its quantum computer unit into a separate business and merged it with start-up Cambridge Quantum Computing into an entity called Quantinuum in which Honeywell has a 54% ownership stake. It also supplies Quantinuum with hardware and software as it develops its QC technology.
- Market Capitalization: $118B
- Read: Honeywell & Supernal Join to Form Ground Control Station
- Alibaba Group (BABA): DOWN 6.6% MTD; DOWN 20.7% since July; DOWN 8.0% YTD
- has been investing heavily in QC research and made major progress in launching its QC chip, called the XuanTie C910, which is based on superconducting qubit technology.
- Market Capitalization: $206B
- Read: Tightened US rules throttle Alibaba and Baidu’s AI chip development
- Advanced Micro Devices (AMD): DOWN 6.6% MTD; DOWN 16.0% since July; UP 53.5% YTD
- focuses on CPUs and GPUs and is a major player in the embedded chip market. It will be launching its MI300X AI chip, the most powerful AI chip in history with the power of 2.4 times that of Nvidia's top devices in just one chip as well as 1.6 times the memory bandwidth, which will eliminate the need for half the chips AI companies desperately need.
- Market Capitalization: $155B
- Read: AMD Is About To Launch The Most Powerful AI Chip In History
- Intel (INTC): DOWN 7.7% MTD; DOWN 8.2% since July; UP 24.2% YTD
- is investing heavily in QC research and development making significant headway in developing its QC hardware, software, and algorithms. Its chip is based on what it knows best - silicon chip technology - using some of the same techniques it uses to make classical computing chips but silicon is something of an underdog in the QC realm right now. QC is not central to Intel's plan to regain dominance in the semiconductor industry but it could become an important segment for the integrated chip design in the years to come if research yields positive results.
- Market Capitalization: $137B
- Read: Intel Looks at AI Tuning to Bolster Software Offerings
- Rigetti Computing (RGTI): DOWN 10.5% MTD; DOWN 45.9% since July; UP 63.0% YTD
- specializes in superconducting qubit technology and has developed a suite of software tools and algorithms for programming and simulating quantum computations.
- Market Capitalization: $158 Million
- Read: Rigetti Computing Awarded Five-Year Contract with Air Force Research Lab for Quantum Foundry Services
- Baidu (BIDU): DOWN 20.3% MTD; DOWN 31.4% since July; DOWN 6.8% YTD
- is involved in the development of both QC hardware and software introducing its first superconducting quantum computer with a 10-qubit processor and a 36-qubit quantum chip in August, 2022. Additionally, Baidu has pioneered the development of a comprehensive quantum hardware-software integration solution, enabling access to a wide range of quantum chips through various platforms such as cloud services, mobile applications, and personal computers.
- Market Capitalization: $38B
- Read: Baidu Claims Its AI Tech Matches ChatGPT. Alibaba Has Some Catching Up to Do
- D-Wave Quantum (QBTS): DOWN 29.2% MTD; DOWN 67.6% since July; DOWN 52.8% YTD
- is the leading provider of QC systems and software with a focus on quantum annealing technology.
- Market Capitalization: $99 Million
- Read: D-Wave Quantum Announces Progress in Development of High-Coherence Qubits
- IonQ (IONQ): DOWN 30.1% MTD; DOWN 46.0% since July; UP 201.4% YTD
- develops QC hardware and is the first to have its computing systems available via all the major public cloud services. It generates little in the way of revenue right now and is not yet profitable and will need to continue spending heavily to develop its products and business for at least a few more years. It plans to build a network of quantum computers accessible via the cloud and is targeting rapid growth in 2023 as researchers begin using its hardware at greater scale.
- Market Capitalization: $2B
- Read: IonQ to Report Third Quarter 2023 Financial Results on November 8, 2023
On average, the above 10 QC stocks have a market capitalization of $85B, a stock price of $71 and are DOWN 7.6% MTD, DOWN 15.5% since July and only UP 1.4% YTD.
There are an additional 4 mega-cap companies very active in QC research and development and they are included in the "The Magnificent Seven" AI-themed Mega-Cap Stocks Index, namely: Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL), and Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN). They have an average market capitalization of $1.6T, an average stock price of $245 and are, on average, DOWN 2.8% MTD, DOWN 8.4% since July but are UP 81.2% YTD.
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