Q2 Earnings Growth Forecasted To Hit Two-Year High
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Nike (NKE - Free Report) and Walgreens Boot Alliance (WBA - Free Report) became the latest S&P 500 members to release quarterly results for their respective fiscal quarters ending in May. Including these two bellwether operators, we now have May-quarter results from 18 S&P 500 members. We and other research organizations engaged in tracking earnings results in real-time, count such May-quarter results as part of the overall June-quarter or Q2 tally.
In other words, by the time everyone starts paying attention to the Q2 earnings season with the quarterly reports from the big banks, beginning on July 12th, we will have such Q2 results from almost two dozen S&P 500 members.
Regular readers of our earnings commentary are familiar with our sanguine view of corporate profitability. The growth picture has been steadily improving over the last few quarters, and even the revisions trend has notably stabilized lately.
The ‘doom & gloom view’ of corporate profitability that a noisy market segment appeared to subscribe to last year has primarily moved to the fringes. Driving this evolution has been the U.S. economy’s resilient performance in the face of the Fed’s extraordinary tightening. With the Fed now gearing up to start easing policy in the coming months, many of the dire risks to the economy and corporate earnings have eased significantly.
This is the macro backdrop in which we digested the Q1 earnings season and the one we will be receiving the Q2 earnings results in soon.
The current expectation is that Q2 earnings for the S&P index will be up +8.3% from the same period last year on +4.6% higher revenues.
This is the highest quarterly earnings growth pace since the +9.9% growth in the first quarter of 2022 and would follow the +6.7% earnings growth on +3.2% revenue gains in 2024 Q1.
The chart below shows current earnings and revenue growth expectations for 2024 Q2 in the context of where growth has been over the preceding five quarters and what is currently expected for the following three quarters.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As we have consistently flagged in our commentaries, the revisions trend for 2024 Q2 and full-year 2024 has been very favorable lately.
The chart below shows how Q2 earnings growth expectations have evolved since the quarter got underway.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see above, Q2 estimates went up after the period got underway and have started coming down only in recent weeks. This is a far better revisions trend relative to what we have been used to seeing ahead of the start of other recent quarterly reporting cycles.
The improving earnings outlook for the Energy sector has been a major contributor to this favorable revisions trend at the index level. But the Energy sector isn’t the only sector that has enjoyed positive estimate revisions since the start of April. Other sectors enjoying positive estimate revisions include Transportation, Utilities, Tech, and Autos. On the negative side, estimates have been cut for 11 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with notable declines at the Industrial Products, Aerospace, Consumer Staples, Conglomerates, Construction, and others.
Embedded in current Q2 earnings and revenue estimates is a steady improvement in margins, continuing the positive trend that has been in place since 2023 Q3. The chart below shows the year-over-year change in net margins.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
This chart shows that the extreme margin pressure that we witnessed in 2022 and the first half of 2023 is now behind us.
For 2024 Q2, net margins are expected to be above the year-earlier level for 9 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with the biggest gains at Tech, Medical, Finance, Consumer Discretionary, and others. On the negative side, margins are expected to be below the year-earlier level for 7 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with major pressure at Basic Materials, Autos, Transportation, and other sectors.
The Tech sector has been a major contributor to the index growth in recent quarters, and that trend is expected to remain in place in 2024 Q2 as well. Total earnings for the sector are expected to be up +15.5% on +9.5% higher revenues with a 119-basis point expansion in net margins.
The chart below shows the year-over-year change in the Tech sector’s net margins.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
As you can see above, the period of easy comparisons is coming to an end, but the overall margins outlook is still favorable for the space.
Looking at the overall earnings picture on an annual basis, total 2024 S&P 500 earnings are expected to be up +9% on +1.7% revenue growth. The expected revenue growth pace improves to +3.9% once Finance is excluded from the aggregate data, with the index-level aggregate earnings growth for the year remaining unchanged at +9% on an ex-Finance basis.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
Q2 Earnings Season Scorecard
As noted earlier, the recent earnings reports from Nike, Walgreens, and 16 other S&P 500 members for their respective fiscal quarters ending in May get counted as part of our official 2024 Q2 earnings tally. This week, we are a bit light on the reporting front, with about six companies reporting results, including S&P 500 member Constellation Brands.
For the 18 S&P 500 members that have reported their fiscal May quarter results already, total earnings are up +25.8% from the same period last year on +4.4% higher revenues, with 83.3% beating EPS estimates and only 38.9% able to beat revenue estimates.
This is too small a sample of results to draw any conclusions from, but the comparison charts below put the earnings and revenue growth rates for these companies in a historical context.
Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
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