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The expectation is for Q3 earnings to increase by +5.1% from the same period last year on +6% higher revenues. This would follow earnings growth rates of +12.4% and +12.3% in 2025 Q2 and Q1, respectively.

In the unlikely event that actual Q3 earnings growth for the S&P 500 index turns out to be +5.1% as currently expected, this will be the lowest earnings growth pace for the index since the +4.4% growth rate in 2023 Q3.

We have been regularly flagging in recent weeks that the estimate revisions trend has been positive since late April, after remaining under pressure in the preceding months. You can see this in the chart below which plots how 2025 Q3 earnings growth expectations evolved in recent weeks.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
 

Since the start of July, Q3 earnings estimates have increased for 5 of the 16 Zacks sectors, which include the Tech, Finance, and Energy sectors.

While Q3 estimates for the remaining 11 sectors have been under pressure, the favorable revisions trend for the Tech and Finance sectors is more than enough to offset their effect on the aggregate trends at the index level, as these two sectors alone account for more than 50% of the index’s total earnings.

On the negative side, estimates for 11 of the 16 Zacks sectors have been under pressure since the start of the quarter, with notable declines for the Medical, Transportation, Basic Materials, Consumer Staples, and other sectors.   

The Tech sector, which has been a standout growth driver in recent quarters, is expected to continue playing that role in 2025 Q3 as well, with total earnings for the sector expected to be up +11.9% on +12.4% higher revenues. Had it not been for the substantial growth contribution from the Tech sector, total S&P 500 earnings growth for Q3 would be only +2% (instead of +5.1% otherwise).

The chart below illustrates the Tech sector’s earnings and revenue growth picture on a quarterly basis, comparing expectations for 2025 Q3 with actual growth for the preceding two periods and expectations for the following three quarters.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
 

As noted earlier, Q3 estimates for the Tech sector have been trending higher since the quarter got underway, as the chart below shows.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
 

We will see if this week’s results from Oracle (ORCL - Free Report) and Adobe (ADBE - Free Report) will confirm these Tech sector expectations.

The Earnings Big Picture
 

The chart below shows current Q3 earnings and revenue growth expectations for the S&P 500 index in the context of the preceding 4 quarters and the coming three quarters.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
 

The chart below shows the overall earnings picture on a calendar-year basis.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
 

In terms of S&P 500 index ‘EPS’, these growth rates approximate to $258.50 for 2025 and $290.59 for 2026.

Key Earnings Reports This Week
 

The Q3 earnings season will really get going when the big banks come out with their September-quarter results in about a month’s time. But we will have officially counted almost two dozen quarterly reports from S&P 500 members by then. All of those reports will be from companies with fiscal quarters ending in August, which we and other research organizations count as part of the September-quarter tally.

This week’s earnings releases from Oracle and Adobe will be for those Tech companies’ fiscal quarters ending in August. As such, we will be looking at these reports as the early Q3 earnings releases.

As the below year-to-date performance chart shows, market participants have been treating Oracle and Adobe shares in opposite ways lately.
 

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research
 

Oracle may not be on track to join the Mag 7 group, but the market has been happy to credit the company for its AI strategy. Adobe, on the other hand, is seen as a victim of the coming AI boom, with many in the market worried that artificial intelligence will dilute the company’s leadership in its software niche. Trends in estimate revisions reflect some of these views about each stock.

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