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By no means is it the greatest discount ever. While multiple hot tickets suffered hefty losses on Thursday, Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR) only saw a modest dip of 0.84% — practically a rounding error. In the trailing five sessions, PLTR stock is down just 4%. After gaining almost 136% so far this year, investors are understandably looking for a more substantive correction.

Still, there is an argument to be made that the current red ink may be one of the few accumulative periods available.

Since making its public market debut in 2020, PLTR stock has enjoyed a stunning rise in valuation, especially from the spring of 2024. However, with the security commanding a market capitalization north of $422 billion, questions have naturally arisen about its forward viability.

As a baseline, PLTR stock features a strong upward bias. Over the next 10 weeks, the equity would be projected to land above the starting point or anchor price 62.3% of the time. As a probabilistic distribution, PLTR’s expected 10-week median prices would form a bullishly skewed bell curve, with the bulk of prices landing around $182 (assuming an anchor of $178.12, Thursday’s close).

At present, PLTR stock is printing a 4-6-D sequence: four up weeks, six down weeks, with an overall downward trajectory. Like marine biologists studying great white sharks, it’s possible to algorithmically “tag” this sequence to identify how it responds relative to baseline conditions.

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Generally, while the exceedance ratio (or the number of times that PLTR stock is expected to rise above the anchor over the next 10 weeks) is almost the same as the aggregate, the upside range of potential prices improves, with only a minimal cost in extra downside risk frequencies.

What’s more, under 4-6-D conditions, the median projected 10-week price would be expected to cluster around $192 as opposed to $182.

No, it’s not the type of discount where people are pounding the table on it. However, from a mathematical perspective, there’s a quantitative reason to be bullish.

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