Palantir Stock Is Down Again: Is This A Discount Or A Bull Trap?

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No one questions that Palantir Technologies (PLTR) has been one of the hottest players in the technology ecosystem. Since the beginning of this year, PLTR stock has gained 133%, an absolutely stunning figure. However, unlike other innovation specialists, PLTR’s trailing half-year performance is more muted, up roughly 91%. With Friday morning’s corrective spell, it raises the obvious question: has the security gone up too far, too fast?

Some of the red ink may be attributed to broader market concerns. Earlier in the week, jobs market data came in better than expected. Specifically, first-time filings for jobless benefits landed at a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ending Sept. 20, below the consensus estimate of 235,000. On paper, that’s positive news. However, it also means that the Federal Reserve might not implement as aggressive a dovish policy as previously thought.

Also, another source of volatility could simply be market digestion. Yes, PLTR stock has benefited from the implications of multiple fundamental tailwinds. More recently, Palantir announced a deal with aerospace juggernaut Boeing (BA), an agreement that involves integrating artificial intelligence systems and data analytics to Boeing’s defense, space and security units. Additionally, Palantir inked an AI-based software deal with the U.K. military.

While these and other news items are certainly noteworthy, investors may have gotten accustomed to the ascent. As such, there may need to be much more robust datapoints to justify lifting PLTR stock. Still, there are interesting wrinkles to consider.

On the fundamental side, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the economy grew 3.8%, much more robust than the 3% growth that earlier projections demonstrated. As well, the latest print indicated a sizable recovery from the 0.6% decline in the first quarter. With the latest inflation data coming in line with modest expectations, the Fed’s earlier intent to cut rates in October has been given real justification.

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Quantitatively, PLTR stock is currently structured in a 6-4-U formation: 6 up weeks, 4 down weeks, with an (U)pward trajectory in the trailing 10-week period. Under this framework, the statistical expectation is a gradual rise. Since its public market debut, PLTR stock has flashed the 6-4-U a total of 63 times on a rolling basis. By the end of the next 10-week period, the security was up 55 times (or 87.3%).

For bold but rational traders, the 180/185 bull call spread expiring Nov. 21 may be enticing. If PLTR stock rises through the second-leg strike price ($185) at expiration, the maximum payout currently stands above 122%. What’s more, breakeven is $182.25, which is a realistic target given prior statistical trends.


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