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Nvidia (NVDA) stock rose early Monday as broader market relief over progress toward ending the US government shutdown combined with renewed optimism surrounding CEO Jensen Huang’s meeting with senior executives at Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSM).

Nvidia stock up 3.5% at $194.93 in early trading, recovering some ground after a roughly 9% drop across the past five sessions.

The gains tracked stronger sentiment across semiconductor names, with Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) rising 4.3% and Broadcom (AVGO) up 1.9% in morning trading.

AI capex surge expected to drive Nvidia’s upcoming earnings
 

Nvidia is entering the run-up to its Nov. 19 earnings report, and analysts expect the company’s results to reflect the rapid expansion of artificial-intelligence infrastructure spending by major technology companies.

Analysts at UBS recently lifted their estimates for global AI capital expenditure to $423 billion in 2025 and $571 billion in 2026, up from prior forecasts of $375 billion and $500 billion, respectively.

The surge in spending underpins expectations of strong revenue growth for Nvidia, whose GPUs continue to anchor the world’s largest AI buildouts.

Huang’s Taiwan visit signals rising production needs
 

Over the weekend, Huang visited Taiwan and met with executives at TSMC, Nvidia’s most critical chip manufacturing partner.

According to Taiwanese media reports, the company’s expanding AI chip orders could require TSMC to increase production of its 3-nanometer wafers by as much as 50% per month at its Taiwan facilities.

TSMC CEO CC Wei confirmed Huang requested additional wafer production, though he declined to disclose precise volumes, Reuters reported.

TSMC on Monday reported record monthly sales for October, though growth of 17% year-over-year marked its slowest expansion since February 2024 — a reminder of the cyclical backdrop even as AI demand remains exceptionally strong.

Analysts expect Nvidia to deliver another strong print
 

Wall Street remains broadly bullish heading into earnings.

Citi analyst Atif Malik raised his Nvidia price target to $220 from $210, arguing that supply—not demand—is the main constraint on AI chip revenue.

Malik boosted his forecast for the 2028 data centre semiconductor total addressable market to $654 billion, up 16% from an earlier estimate of $563 billion.

He projects Nvidia will once again outperform expectations, writing: “We expect ‘beat and raise’ Oct-Q results on 11/19. We model Oct-Q sales of $57 billion, above the Street’s ~$55 billion, and expect Jan-Q guidance of $62 billion vs Street ~$61 billion.”

Analysts elsewhere share the conviction. Melius Research’s Ben Reitzes reiterated a Buy rating and $300 target, noting upside potential tied to demand for the company’s next-generation GB300 chips.

UBS also expects Nvidia to issue a strong forecast, projecting Q4 revenue of $63–64 billion and suggesting there is “capacity to guide quite a bit higher.”

The firm maintains a Buy rating and a $235 price target.

Reitzes added that strong hyperscaler procurement and newly approved sovereign licenses are likely to support “upside to data center revenues for the F3Q October quarter and upside to F4Q guidance for January.”

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