Netflix Shares Can Fall 50% If Growth Cred Is Lost, Says Needham

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Needham analyst Laura Martin believes 2021 will be a year of "digital attention recession." After being locked at home for more than a year, "millions of consumers are eager to spend money and time in the physical world," Martin tells investors in a research note.

Since the hours of the day are fixed, "this must come at the expense of digital hours," says the analyst. Martin points out that unlike linear TV, churn in subscription video on demand is high because it is cancelable at any time.

SVOD churn has risen materially through Q4 of 2020, and this should accelerate as the economy reopens in 2021, she contends. Martin thinks Netflix's churn will accelerate without a cheaper, advertising-driven, tier.

The analyst also sees Disney+ as a "global predator" for Netflix subscribers. If Netflix "loses its growth credentials" and can't trade on an enterprise value to sales multiple, the stock has 50% downside risk to $250 per share based on enterprise value to EBITDA. In a research note tiled "NFLX Biggest 2021 Risk is Churn," Martin keeps an Underperform rating on the shares.

 

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Mike Nolan 4 weeks ago Member's comment

I agree. That's why I'm holding off on starting a position here.

Reopening is a big negative catalyst coming up. Not to mention management has failed to identify adjacent industries to move into.

They are falling into the same trap cable fell into two decades ago with the added burden of paying for original content.

The fact the SP has stayed within the 5-600 range last 8 months is further evidence that this is no longer considered a growth company.