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Global markets traded mixed in the first half of Thursday’s session, with market sentiment largely positive, albeit concerns over geopolitics and AI spending lingering. US index futures were up modestly after forecast-beating earnings from Meta outweighed falls in shares of Microsoft, keeping Nasdaq 100 futures near a record level. In contrast, Germany’s DAX was hit by a sharp drop in shares of SAP, causing the index to decline over 1%. Looking ahead, investors will be wondering whether the dollar’s mild recovery has any staying power, with the release of weekly jobless claims being eyed. The greenback found some support after Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said the US was 'absolutely not' intervening in the USD/JPY, while the Fed was deemed to be a little more hawkish than expected as it paused rate cuts. The ongoing dollar debasement narrative continues to support metals for now: Silver crossed $120 for the first time ever, while gold hit $5,600 and copper surged 6%.  While miners again outperformed in Europe, energy names were also on the rise as WTI crude climbed to $65.00 and Brent neared $70 per barrel.

Before discussing the macro influences, let’s have a quick look at the chart of the Nasdaq futures first to identify key trading levels ahead of the open.
 

Nasdaq 100 technical analysis

The technical picture on the Nasdaq 100 futures looks positive, given that it has just broken out of a multi-week consolidation to the upside this week, moving above former resistance in the 25,880 to 26,045 region. This area is highlighted on the chart and had capped rallies since the market peaked in October.

Since then, we’ve seen several failed attempts to break higher, first in November and then a couple of times in December, as well as earlier this month, before the index finally managed to clear the zone. This bullish breakout is therefore a positive technical development, and the key question now is whether the index can hold above this former resistance and push higher towards fresh record levels. I certainly wouldn’t bet against it at this stage.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

However, if the index were to fall back below this support area, the bulls would be put under pressure, and we could see some form of corrective move. The next major support comes in around the 25,000 level, which was tested twice during the previous consolidation phase before we saw the recent liftoff from that area a couple of weeks ago. This level is now key from a downside perspective.

On the upside, the October record high stands at 26,399, and a break above this would put the index into clear blue skies. In that scenario, it’s worth keeping an eye on the Fibonacci extension level shown on the chart as the next upside, Fibonacci-based target if the rally continues.
 

Markets in wait-and-see mode

Rising geopolitical tensions around Iran, coupled with a volatile US dollar, are reinforcing the view that key macro risks remain unresolved, leaving investors firmly in wait-and-see mode. The dollar index has been in a sharp downward spiral, putting it on track for its worst month since last April. The greenback hasn’t behaved like a traditional safe haven for some time, with investors instead favouring more tangible alternatives such as precious metals. Silver surged to $120 for the first time on record (here’s a silver price chart), gold pushed up to $5,600, and copper joined the party with a 7% jump.
 

Trump warns Iran

Brent crude futures climbed to $70 a barrel for the first time since September after US President Donald Trump warned Iran to strike a nuclear deal or face potential military action. Trump said US ships he had ordered to the region were ready to carry out their mission “with speed and violence, if necessary.” Any US strike could threaten oil flows from the Middle East, a region responsible for around a third of global supply. Iranian retaliation is additional risk traders are also taking into account, which could involve disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
 

Company news

• Meta Platforms said it plans to invest up to $135 billion this year, well above forecasts. Its shares jumped more than 7% in pre-market trading after issuing a stronger-than-expected sales outlook.
• Microsoft fell 5% in premarket after announcing higher spending plans alongside signs of slowing growth in its cloud business.
• In Europe, shares in German software giant SAP plunged 15%, their biggest drop in over five years, after the company reported much weaker-than-expected growth in its cloud contract backlog for the fourth quarter and warned that backlog growth is likely to slow slightly in 2026.

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