Morning Call For Sept. 8, 2014


September E-mini S&Ps (ESU14 -0.14%) this morning are down -0.16% and European stocks are down -0.41%, led by a slide in UK bank stocks after a poll showed a majority of voters favored Scottish independence. According to the YouGov Plc poll for the Sunday Times, 51% of Scottish voters favor breaking away from the UK, less than 2 weeks before Scottish voters vote on the referendum on Sep 18. Another negative for European stocks was the plunge in the Eurozone Sep Sentix investor confidence to a 14-month low. Asian stocks closed mixed: Japan +0.23%, Hong Kong -0.20%, China, Taiwan and South Korea closed for holiday, Australia -0.39%, Singapore -0.20%, India +1.08%. Commodity prices are mixed. Oct crude oil (CLV14 -0.62%) is down -0.66% at a 7-3/4 month low on Chinese demand concerns after China Aug imports unexpectedly fell by the most in 5 months. Oct gasoline (RBV14 -0.60%) is down -0.82%. Dec gold (GCZ14 -0.02%) is down -0.11%. Dec copper (HGZ14 +0.87%) is up +0.90% at a 1-week high. Agriculture prices are weaker. The dollar index (DXY00 +0.21%) is up +0.24%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.03%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.11%. GBP/USD is down -1.24% as the British pound sank to a 9-1/2 month low against the dollar amid speculation a Scotland breakaway from the UK would encourage the BOE to keep interest rates lower for longer. Dec T-note prices (ZNZ14 +0.14%) are up +5.5 ticks.

The China Aug trade balance unexpectedly widened to a record surplus of $49.84 billion from $47.30 billion in July, more than expectations for the trade balance to shrink to a $40.00 billion surplus. Aug exports rose +9.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of +9.0% y/y, and Aug imports unexpectedly fell -2.4% y/y, weaker than expectations of +3.0% y/y and the biggest decline in 5 months.

The Eurozone Sep Sentix investor confidence dropped -12.5 points to -9.8, a bigger decline than expectations of -1.3 to 1.4 and the lowest in 14 months.

The German Jul trade balance widened to a record 23.4 billion euro surplus from a 16.6 billion euro surplus in Jun, a larger surplus than expectations of 16.8 billion euros. Jul exports rose +4.7% m/m, stronger than expectations of +0.6% m/m and the biggest increase in 2 years. Jul imports unexpectedly fell -1.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m.

The German Jul current account balance unexpectedly widened to a 21.7 billion euros surplus from an upward revised +17.2 billion euro surplus in Jun, a bigger surplus than expectations of 14.0 billion euros and the most in 8 months.

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