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Markets were mixed today — mostly down but for an uptick on the tech-heavy Nasdaq, partly thanks to good news from Tesla (TSLA - Free Report) on its robotaxi until helped the stock rise +3% today, to a new all-time closing high. The Dow, S&P 500 and small-cap Russell 2000 were all down for the day: -0.62%, -0.24% and 0.45%, respectively. The Nasdaq was up +54 points, +0.23%, on the session.

This morning’s jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) bounced back somewhat in November to +64K, but from an October low of -105K not seen since the initial months of the Covid pandemic. Part of this was by design, to remove federal government jobs as per President Trump’s campaign promise to lower costs. But it contributed to a net loss of -41K jobs per month on average. Usually job losses this extreme get investors buzzing about the “r” word…

Retail Sales, S&P PMI Inform Morning Trading
 

Retail Sales for October — another delayed report due to the government shutdown — came in unched (0.0%) from an expected rise of +0.1%. This follows a downwardly revised +0.1% the prior month. Ex-auto sales, we moved the other way: +0.4% from +0.2% anticipated, and again revised down the previous month — from +0.3% to +0.1%. This is the highest print since the +0.6% from August.

Ex-autos and gas, this number climbed to +0.5%, and the Control figure — which finds its way into other economic reports throughout the month — was an even higher +0.8%, the highest read since June, matching the highest print of the year. Again, we see the American consumer participating to an encouraging degree, once we look past the headline number.

S&P flash Services and Manufacturing PMI for December came in below expectations this morning, with the Services sector tallying 52.9 from an upwardly revised 54.1 the prior month, and Manufacturing dropping to 51.8 from a downwardly revised 52.2 for November. That said, these metrics remain securely above the 50 threshold which determines growth from loss.

A surplus in global crude oil and concerns about economic growth slowing have assisted oil prices in moving to near-five-year lows. The West Texas crude January future traded at $55 per barrel (bbl) today, This marks 10 straight days below the $60/bbl level, with spot prices in the red all around the world except in South Texas for today. It’s a good sign for keeping inflation metrics low, but bad for companies like Phillips 66 (PSX - Free Report), which dropped almost -7% today.

Lennar Home Mixed in Q4 on Lower Home Sales Numbers
 

Miami-based multi-segment homebuilder Lennar Home (LEN - Free Report) posted Q4 earnings after today’s closing bell, missing on the bottom line due to a one-time charge of $156 million to earnings of $1.93 per share. Revenues of $9.37 billion came in ahead of the $9.13 billion in the Zacks consensus. Gross margins of +17% were slightly below market estimates.

New orders were down to +18% year over year, as the “overall market remained challenged” in the quarter, according to co-CEO and Executive Chairman Stuart Miller. The other co-CEO, Jon Jaffe, retires at the end of this year. Expectations for between 17-18K new deliveries are below analyst estimates.

What to Expect from Tomorrow’s Market
 

Whether market participants will continue to ruminate over whether the economy is weakening due to the soft jobs numbers — or whether they regain hope that CPI figures Thursday morning may increase the likelihood that the Fed may be lowering interest rates at its January meeting — is hard to tell from here. All four major indexes are in the green over the past month of trading, but only the Dow is for the last five trading sessions.

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