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It’s the dawning of a new era. An inauspicious one, for sure, but it is new. Tariffs being slapped onto the U.S.’s trading partners all on the same day has only increased the levels of uncertainty for market participants. The end result was one of the single-worst trading days in recent memory.

Major stock market indexes closed at session lows, and continue to tumble in late-trading hours. The Dow slid a whopping -1679 points, -3.98% on the day, while the S&P 500 dropped -274 points, -4.84%. Even the Nasdaq posted a four-figure loss today, -1050 points of -5.97%, while the small-cap Russell 2000’s -134 points on the day amounts to a jaw-dropping -6.59% leveling for the session.

March Services Stay North of 50… for Now
 

Looking back at March Services PMI data earlier today felt a little like entering a time machine into the past. The final S&P U.S. Services PMI was slightly above estimates at +54.4, and 10 basis points (bps) ahead of the prior-month’s print. ISM Services managed to stay above the 50% demarcation between expansion and contraction to +50.8%, but narrower than the expected +52.9% and the previous month’s +53.5%.

There’s no telling what these numbers will read like a month from now, when April results are culled. But with the ISM Services especially dainty, less than a percentage points above the 50-level, we may expect something of a drop. Estimates will be coming out in the next couple weeks.

Guess? Beats on Top & Bottom Line in Q4
 

Specialty retailer Guess? (GES - Free Report) outperformed expectations on its bottom line for the first time in the past three quarters in its fiscal Q4 report after today’s closing bell. Earnings of $1.48 per share surpassed the Zacks consensus by 7 cents or revenues of $932 million, which were nicely beyond the $899 million anticipated.

The tariff reality looks to have been baked somewhat into Guess?’s outlook, with full-fiscal year guidance of +3.9%-6.2% growth. Full-year EPS has guided to a wide range: $1.32-1.76 per share, but this is off a previously expected $2.02 per share for the full fiscal year. Shares had sold off -11% ahead of the report, and are only off slightly in late trading.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Friday
 

In a normal Jobs Week, we’d see the Friday morning report on nonfarm payrolls from the U.S. government as the most important event of the week. It’s safe to say that no amount of jobs reported tomorrow at 8:30am will eclipse the impact of the newly begun global trade war. That said, analysts expect between 135-140K new jobs having been filled last month, with an Unemployment Rate steady at +4.1%.

In fact, most metrics from this report and anticipated to come in at steady levels. with Wage Growth remaining steady both month over month and year over year. In fact, aside from Weekly Jobless Claims, which continue to represent mild job losses and an overall healthy labor market, nonfarm payrolls have been about as steady and gainful as we could have expected… thus far.

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