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Stock market indexes were mixed, rallying around the maypole today. The Dow looked poised to pare losses in the final moments of trading but fell to near-session lows at the bell: -140 points, -0.36%. The S&P 500 was flat as a pancake today unless viewed through a magnifying glass: +0.0043%. The Nasdaq gained +35 points, +0.21%, while the small-cap Russell 2000 gave away -0.91%.

Market Leaders on a Mixed Day: NVDA, SMCI, UNH

Over the past month, the A.I. trade has gotten a re-think. By this I mean it has sold off from its lofty perch after a year-plus of leading the markets. But today we see NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) catching a bid: +4% on the day, leading all mega-caps. Super Micro Computer (SMCI - Free Report) — a server-based A.I. play — led the way higher by way of filling in the big hole from mid-last week.

Otherwise, we’re seeing what we more or less hope we would after last week’s rollercoaster ride: the Volatility Index (VIX) — the chief gauge of nervousness among market participants — leveled off around 20 today, after spiking up nearly double that a week ago. That 38.6 we saw last Monday was the highest in more than a year. So it would stand to reason that less volatile stocks like UnitedHealth (UNH - Free Report) would lead the Dow today.

Monthly Fed Budget Deepens to -$244 Billion

Meanwhile, the Monthly Federal Budget for July was released at 2pm ET this afternoon, coming in slightly below expectations to -$244 billion, and a deep cut month over month but not as bad as the -$347 billion from a couple months ago. There was an adjustment for deferred tax receipts to the tune of $12 billion for the month. The lion’s share of total outlays came from Individual Income Taxes, while Corporate Income Taxes at $20 billion was less than a quarter of the Net Interest levels in total receipts.

July PPI Tuesday Will Depict Wholesale Inflation

Tomorrow morning, the Producer Price Index (PPI) will hit the tape. This will demonstrate the levels of wholesale inflation, which in the supply chain nightmare of a few years ago had ballooned up to +9.7%. The July core number year over year is expected to remain at +3.0%, where it was in the same print a month ago. This is actually the highest we’ve seen since April in 2023; back in December of last year, PPI had sunk to +1.8%. A surprise to the downside would be welcome, core PPI year over year has now increased in each of the past six months.

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