The market closed with another elongated profile, offering limited market-generated information and little clarity on directional bias. A closer look at volume, however, reveals a P-shaped profile with the point of control near 7,010. With price currently trading below this level, it defines a potential resistance and tactical selling zone for today’s session.
 

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Participants continue to await further macro data to refine expectations around the rate-cut path. The prevailing scenario increasingly points toward a near-term pause, which still needs to be fully priced into markets and could drive additional downside or consolidation. This keeps the daily timeframe anchored in a broadly balanced range.

From a macro perspective, risk appetite remains constructive. Capital inflows into small caps, emerging markets, Bitcoin, and the ongoing rally in copper all signal confidence in the underlying growth outlook. At the same time, gold’s continued advance reflects persistent demand for safety, particularly linked to Japan, where policy actions appear aimed at limiting further yen depreciation. A disorderly move in the yen could force rate hikes and higher domestic yields, potentially redirecting capital away from U.S. assets over the forward curve.

Crude oil’s renewed strength highlights elevated geopolitical and inflation risks, reinforced by a firmer dollar, both consistent with a rate-cut hold narrative. Volatility is elevated on a year-to-date basis, flagging rising downside risks and the potential for a pullback. Interest-rate futures also reflect growing conviction around a policy pause that markets continue to digest.

Credit markets remain supportive, still aligning with a broader melt-up scenario in risk assets.

Bottom line: The outlook is conflicted. While flows and credit conditions support risk-taking, increasing signals of a rate-cut halt argue for caution and the potential for a pullback. For now, the balance of evidence suggests a roughly 75% bullish risk-on probability, with near-term downside risks rising.

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