Looking at the daily interval, we can observe that the month’s developing higher value extreme acted as a support area for buyers to add to core long positions yesterday, despite the interest rate hold, which we had anticipated (as mentioned on X). Inflation expectations remain elevated, and several key spending and supply-side indicators continue to push equities higher, potentially in an inflationary manner.

Today’s auction process has broken through record highs and continues to show upside imbalance, suggesting the path of least resistance remains upward. However, upcoming economic data, particularly the PCE Price Index, could be crucial in shaping sentiment. A slight rise in PCE, combined with the hold in interest rates, might introduce some pressure into today’s session.

Currently, the market appears mixed, with a rotational structure forming around the VWAP mean. From an intraday perspective, we see a previous P-shaped profile with the bulk of volume concentrated in the upper price range. The POC around 6420 may act as a magnet if selling pressure increases during the RTH session.
 

With the developing value area sloping upward, traders may look to the VWAP and lower extremes as potential zones to add to core long positions. The volatility index is negative, which is supportive of higher prices, though it could pick up and lead to a test of the 6400 level in ES, depending on U.S. market participation.

The U.S. dollar is neutral, though its rising structure may act as a pressure factor. Conversely, yields are negative, which is a supportive tailwind for equities. Copper (Dr. Copper) is down roughly 21%, signaling possible downside risk for equities, especially as gold continues to rise, often a signal of defensive positioning.

The overall bias remains cautiously bullish with upside imbalance, but near-term sentiment could shift quickly based on key data releases. Watch for confluence between the technical levels and macro signals mentioned above for actionable trade setups.

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