Image Source: Pixabay

Markets close calendar Q2 and the first half of 2025 (1H25) at fresh all-time highs on the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The indexes all finished the session off intraday highs set only moment before the bell rang, but the Dow gained +275 points, +0.63%, the S&P 500 was +31, +0.52% — crossing 6200 for the first time at the end of a trading day. The Nasdaq grew +96 points, +0.47%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 finished +2 points, +0.12%.

The Dow gained +4% in the month of June, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq up over +6%. Treasuries notched their best first half of the year in five years. AI component giant NVIDIA (NVDA - Free Report) gained +15% over the past month, while crypto platform Robinhood (HOOD - Free Report) is up +12% for June, to name but a few.

All big banks put to the latest stress test managed to pass, with JPMorgan (JPM - Free Report) gathering an extra +1% today. Oil prices have fallen nearly $10 per barrel over the past 10 days, keeping fuel prices low — even coming off the specter of inflamed tensions between Israel/U.S. and Iran. And the windfall tax cut “Big Beautiful Bill” undergoes its “vote-o-rama” phase before potentially passing the Senate later tonight or early tomorrow.

Chicago Business Barometer Lower in June
 

Not everything was coming up roses today, however: the Chicago Business Barometer, released this morning by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM), came in below estimates to 40.4, 10 basis points (bps) lower than the previous month. Any print sub-50 is an indication of contraction, and for this metric, this has been the case for 19 -straight months. 

A full 90% of business leaders in the region believe we will see less than +5% growth, with 45% seeing flat or a decline in growth for the second half of the year. Recall the tariff issue remains largely unresolved: the 90-day pause a week after “Liberation Day” expires a week from Thursday. Either we’ll see a rash of trade deals between now and then, a further pushback or dissolving of tariff initiatives, or they will be slapped on, often a levels that would severely hamper trade.

What to Expect from the Stock Market Tuesday
 

Tuesday brings us the first monthly jobs numbers in a week full of them, with the May print on Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) expected to tick down to 7.3 million job openings for the month. We have begun to see labor market reads unravel just a tad; these JOLTS figures are from a month in arrears. That said, notably lower results would track with what we’ve seen in jobs numbers elsewhere.

Also, final Manufacturing results for June from both the S&P and ISM are expected after the opening bell Tuesday. Further, Construction Spending and various reports of Auto Sales and deliveries will begin reporting tomorrow. So while today we are cruising to new highs, it would be prudent to be mindful that there are potential headwinds to come.

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