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Over a week, Magnificent Seven stocks nearly recouped losses, following the evolving Greenland situation since last Friday. Over the last three months, Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) now shows 0.2% gains, or 15% over one year.

This week, four out of seven companies will deliver earnings – Tesla (TSLA), Meta Platforms (META), Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) – with a combined market weight of $10 trillion.

Except for Apple, which reports Q1 ‘26 on Thursday, the other three companies are scheduled to report their Q4 ‘25 earnings on Wednesday. Let’s examine which of these tech stocks has greater upside.
 

Tesla (Nasdaq: TSLA) – Sodium Integration Before Robotics?

Tesla is still heavily valued based on its future momentum in robotics, both humanoid and taxi-wise. Previously, we concluded that Tesla has a better long-term positioning in the emerging robotaxi economy against Alphabet’s Waymo owing to Tesla’s full-stack vertical integration and Waymo’s dependency on partner coordination.

According to Tesla’s own compiled data based on 19 analyst inputs, there is little disagreement on the company’s gross margin of 17% in upcoming Q4 earnings, representing a 0.7% deviation. In Q4, Tesla delivered 418,227 EVs or 1,636,129 in total for full-year 2025. This is 9.3% lower than in 2024.

The sell-side analysts aggregate to $0.44 earnings-per-share (non-GAAP) against the reported $0.73 EPS in the year-ago quarter. According to 28 analysts aggregated by the Wall Street Journal, Tesla’s EPS in Q4 should be just above $0.45 EPS.

For 2026, analysts aggregated to an average of 1,722,932 total deliveries, which would still be lower than 1,789,226 in 2024. On the upside, the EV retention appears to be relatively high. Case in point, in its annual McKinsey mobility survey published last April, only 1% of EV owners reported they would never buy an EV again, while under 10% would revert to an ICE vehicle.

Lastly, it appears that 2026 will be a major turning point regarding the battery type paradigm. In September, China’s CATL sodium-ion (Naxtra) battery passed certification, offering up to 15-min fast-charging capability. Combined with Chinese automakers’ push with sub-$20k EVs, Tesla’s window to adapt is rapidly closing.

Although sodium-ion and lithium-ion battery prices are currently comparable, that is only because of established supply chains on the lithium side. Owing to sodium’s abundance, scaling would make it default battery technology for EVs going forward, potentially dropping costs under $50/kWh by 2028, from the current lithium-ion range of $100 – $120/kWh.

It is not clear when Tesla could integrate new sodium-ion batteries at scale. However, the company’s primary battery supplier LG Energy Solution (a subsidiary of LG Chem) signed a deal with China’s Sinopec in early November to make it happen.
 

Microsoft (Nasdaq: MSFT) – Is “Microslop” Going to Stick?

For fiscal Q2 2026 (calendar Q4 ‘25), analysts settled on a $3.91 EPS estimate vs $3.65 reported in the year-ago quarter. Over the last few months, we warned against succumbing to social media’s hyperreality over “Microslop” and similar sentiments.

Most recently last week, we picked MSFT stock as one of the safest bets for 2026, offering 37% potential upside. Not only does the legacy company have multiple existing moats, but its new AI moat is the deepest among the Big Tech. And even if there is an AI bubble burst, Microsoft has plenty of cash flow to withstand it.
 

Meta Platforms (Nasdaq: META) – Hopes for Avocado

Over a year, META stock is up 3.6%. At its current price level of $647, it is 28% under its average price target of $833.21 per share. For Q4, Meta is expected to deliver $8.19 EPS vs $8.02 in the year-ago quarter.

Unlike Microsoft, whose bull case is strongly anchored in cloud computing, Office, operating systems, and AI, Meta’s investment thesis is comparatively less compelling. Although still enjoying wide network effects from Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp, the path to monetizing large AI capex is dubious.

In other words, the AI-related costs ($70-72 billion in 2025) are likely to continue to rise faster than revenue. To many investors, such a trajectory follows a similar arc to its Reality Labs division, which we covered many times as a failure.

And just as the execution model for Reality Labs’ meta worlds was poor, so too could be the case for underperforming AI models. Additionally, large Chinese ad spenders Temu and Shein started pulling after President Trump’s tariff onslaught in early April.

With that said, if Meta pulls ahead with its new Avocado AI model, a successor to the open source Llama, it could reignite confidence. It bears noting that all of these AI models are heavily ideologically restricted, which affects their reliability and accuracy.

Therefore, Meta has space to remove such artificial obstacles, giving itself an advantage against competitors. This would be similar to the way President Trump gave himself an advantage in 2015 by broaching the glaring demographic question.

Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) – Mature AI on a Foldable Platform

Over a year, AAPL stock is up 11%. At its current price level of $248, it is 17.5% below the average price target of $292. For Q1 2026, analysts estimate $2.67 EPS against $2.4 EPS (diluted) in the year-ago quarter. During 2025, Apple’s investment theme centered around its AI deployment delay.

In early November, we noted Apple has sound reasons to do so given that AI’s ongoing confabulation problem hasn’t been addressed properly. For 2026, Apple is expected to deliver some AI features in a more robust manner and on a more flexible foldable platform.

The Apple foldable has the potential to become a new default, once again expanding a niche product into a mass-market phenomenon similar to Apple Watch. Of course, Apple’s record-breaking buyback program continues to serve as a powerful tailwind for investor confidence.

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