Looking Ahead To The Q1 Earnings Season
For most folks, earnings season means the 4 to 6 week period at the end of each calendar quarter when announcements of quarterly earnings releases dominate market headlines. For folks like us, however, who have to monitor and record each and every earnings release, the definition and duration of each earnings season isn’t that simple. Take for example, the 161 companies coming out with quarterly results this week, including 4 S&P 500 members.
Since we are still a couple of weeks away from the end of the March quarter, most folks would assume that all of these reports represent the tail of the 2016 Q4 earnings season. But that’s not correct; not all of this week’s earnings releases fall in the Q4 bucket. In fact, a number of this week’s earnings releases form part of the Q1 earnings season. For example, the Oracle (ORCL - Free Report) report after the market’s close on Wednesday is for that company’s fiscal quarter that ended in February, which will form part of our Q1 earnings tally. The Adobe (ADBE - Free Report) report after the close on Thursday similarly becomes part of the Q1 bucket.
That said, most of this week’s 161 earnings releases do represent the tail of the Q4 reporting cycle. The chart below of weekly reporting calendar for the S&P 500 index clearly shows that we still have another four weeks to go before the Q1 earnings season really takes off.
Expectations for Q1
Total Q1 earnings are expected to be up +6.6% from the same period last year on +6.5% higher revenues. This would follow +7.4% earnings growth in 2016 Q4 on +3.7% revenue growth, the highest growth pace in all most two years.
Estimates for Q1 came down as the quarter unfolded, with the current +6.6% growth down from +10.4% at the end of December. The chart below shows how Q1 earnings growth expectations have evolved over the last three months.
Please note that while Q1 estimates have followed well traversed path that we have been seeing consistently over the last few years, the magnitude of negative revisions compares favorably to other periods. In other words, Q1 estimates have come down, but they haven’t come down by as much.
The table below shows the summary picture for Q1, contrasted with what was actually achieved in Q4 (please note that we have not officially closed the books on Q4 yet, as four index members still have to report quarterly results).
Recap of the Q4 Earnings Season
We now have Q4 results from 495 S&P 500 members, or 99% of the index’s total membership. Total earnings for these 495 index members are up +7.5% on +4.8% higher revenues, with 68.5% beating EPS estimates and 54.5% coming ahead of top-line expectations. For the quarter as a whole (combining estimates for the still-to-come four index members with what has come out already), total Q4 earnings are on track to be up +7.4% from the same period last year on +3.7% higher revenues.
Any way you look at it, the Q4 earnings season turned out to be a good one. Not only has growth turned out to be the highest in two years, but total earnings for the quarter also reached a new quarterly record. Please recall that earnings growth turned positive only in 2016 Q3, having declined in each of the preceding 5 quarters, as the chart below of year-over-year earnings growth for the S&P 500 index shows.
Importantly, the positive Q4 growth wasn’t a result of easy comparisons, but actually a function of strong gains in earnings. In fact, the overall tally of Q4 earnings for the S&P 500 index is on track to reach an all-time record for the index, surpassing the previous record achieved in 2014 Q4. The chart below shows the quarterly earnings totals for index, contrasting the highlighted Q4 tally with actual results from the last 8 quarters and expected tallies in the coming 4 quarters.
As you can see, this record isn’t expected to last very long, with growth expected to ramp up notably in the coming quarters.
The chart below shows the Q3 earnings growth contrasted with declines in the preceding 5 quarters. As you can see in the chart below, the growth pace is expected to ramp up in 2017.
The market is reflecting this improved earnings backdrop as the chart below of the S&P 500 relative to forward 12-month Zacks Consensus estimates shows.
Here is a list of the 161 companies including 4 S&P 500 members reporting this week
Company | Ticker | Current Qtr | Year-Ago Qtr | Last EPS Surprise % | Report Day | Time |
TURNING PT BRND | TPB | 0.31 | N/A | -12.82% | Monday | BTO |
KOPIN CORP | KOPN | -0.11 | -0.11 | 14.29% | Monday | BTO |
ADAPTIMMUNE THR | ADAP | -0.29 | -0.13 | 11.11% | Monday | BTO |
TOWNSQAR MEDIA | TSQ | 0.25 | 0.09 | 0.00% | Monday | BTO |
HUTCHISN CH-ADR | HCM | -0.06 | N/A | N/A | Monday | BTO |
NOBILIS HEALTH | HLTH | 0.36 | 0.27 | -112.50% | Monday | BTO |
LEJU HOLDINGS | LEJU | -0.23 | 0.11 | -16.67% | Monday | BTO |
SUPERCOM LTD | SPCB | N/A | 0.03 | -500.00% | Monday | BTO |
DEL TACO RSTRNT | TACO | 0.2 | N/A | 8.33% | Monday | BTO |
GENER8 MARITIME | GNRT | 0.18 | 0.59 | -125.00% | Monday | BTO |
MINERVA NEUROSC | NERV | -0.25 | -0.34 | -4.35% | Monday | BTO |
KMG CHEMICALS | KMG | 0.42 | 0.4 | 6.67% | Monday | AMC |
INTER PARFUMS | IPAR | 0.12 | 0.06 | 6.12% | Monday | AMC |
ARATANA THERAP | PETX | -0.43 | -0.37 | 20.83% | Monday | AMC |
TILLYS INC | TLYS | 0.21 | 0.1 | 120.00% | Monday | AMC |
TABULA RASA HLT | TRHC | 0.11 | N/A | 33.33% | Monday | AMC |
EXTRACTION O&G | XOG | -0.16 | N/A | N/A | Monday | AMC |
PEREGRINE PHARM | PPHM | -0.03 | -0.08 | 33.33% | Monday | AMC |
RESEARCH FRNTRS | REFR | -0.01 | -0.08 | 50.00% | Monday | AMC |
REAL INDUSTRY | RELY | -0.37 | -0.15 | -185.71% | Monday | AMC |
TRIPLEPOINT VEN | TPVG | N/A | 0.36 | 14.29% | Monday | AMC |
CRAFT BREW ALLN | BREW | 0.09 | 0.07 | -81.25% | Monday | AMC |
COHERUS BIOSC | CHRS | -1.63 | -1.35 | 205.70% | Monday | AMC |
COUPA SOFTWARE | COUP | -0.21 | N/A | -59.09% | Monday | AMC |
ENZO BIOCHEM | ENZ | -0.04 | -0.07 | 40.00% | Monday | AMC |
RESOURCE CAPITL | RSO | 0.02 | 0.03 | -22.58% | Monday | AMC |
BELLICUM PHARM | BLCM | -0.69 | -0.63 | -6.45% | Monday | AMC |
INVESTORS RL ES | IRET | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.00% | Monday | AMC |
LIMONEIRA CO | LMNR | -0.18 | -0.29 | 0.00% | Monday | AMC |
AMPHASTAR PHARM | AMPH | N/A | 0.16 | 0.00% | Monday | AMC |
GOLDEN ENTMNT | GDEN | 0.12 | 0.03 | -60.00% | Monday | AMC |
RYERSON HOLDING | RYI | -0.09 | -0.46 | -20.00% | Monday | AMC |
READING INTL | RDI | 0.08 | 0.14 | 1500.00% | Monday | N/A |
NEOS THERAPTCS | NEOS | -1.42 | -0.57 | 0.00% | Tuesday | BTO |
DSW INC CL-A | DSW | 0.16 | 0.14 | 4.08% | Tuesday | BTO |
COBALT INTL EGY | CIE | -0.13 | -0.17 | -20.00% | Tuesday | BTO |
HD SUPPLY HLDGS | HDS | 0.44 | 0.27 | 1.22% | Tuesday | BTO |
CUI GLOBAL INC | CUI | -0.07 | -0.04 | 66.67% | Tuesday | BTO |
ENERNOC INC | ENOC | -1.13 | -1.1 | 400.00% | Tuesday | BTO |
RADNET INC | RDNT | 0.11 | 0.07 | -63.64% | Tuesday | BTO |
ALLIED MOTN TEC | AMOT | 0.19 | 0.07 | -15.63% | Tuesday | BTO |
AURIS MEDICAL | EARS | -0.28 | -0.16 | 17.86% | Tuesday | BTO |
TRANSMONTN PTNR | TLP | N/A | 0.6 | 18.37% | Tuesday | BTO |
VERITIV CORP | VRTV | 0.74 | 0.88 | -72.36% | Tuesday | BTO |
ADV EMISSIONS | ADES | 0.57 | -0.13 | N/A | Tuesday | BTO |
ALBIREO PHARMA | ALBO | -0.88 | -1.5 | N/A | Tuesday | BTO |
AMPCO-PITTSBRGH | AP | -0.34 | -0.27 | N/A | Tuesday | BTO |
BIO-PATH HLDGS | BPTH | -0.03 | -0.02 | 0.00% | Tuesday | BTO |
NEXPOINT REIT | NXRT | 0.36 | 0.34 | -3.03% | Tuesday | BTO |
PATRIOT NATIONL | PN | 0.12 | 0.12 | -73.91% | Tuesday | BTO |
TRINITY BIOTECH | TRIB | -2.58 | 0.08 | 16.67% | Tuesday | BTO |
WALTER INV MGMT | WAC | -0.53 | -0.32 | -185.71% | Tuesday | BTO |
YY INC-ADR | YY | 1.05 | 0.96 | 26.76% | Tuesday | BTO |
CLEARSIDE BIO | CLSD | -0.34 | N/A | 37.78% | Tuesday | BTO |
CELLDEX THERAPT | CLDX | -0.34 | -0.33 | 9.38% | Tuesday | AMC |
CHEMOCENTRYX | CCXI | 0.07 | -0.26 | -414.29% | Tuesday | AMC |
ACHOGEN INC | AKAO | -0.47 | -0.61 | 25.45% | Tuesday | AMC |
FOGO DE CHAO | FOGO | 0.27 | 0.29 | 6.67% | Tuesday | AMC |
ARENA PHARMA | ARNA | -0.09 | -0.13 | 28.57% | Tuesday | AMC |
CONNECTURE INC | CNXR | 0.22 | 0.19 | -50.00% | Tuesday | AMC |
INFINITY PHARMA | INFI | -0.56 | -0.8 | 53.57% | Tuesday | AMC |
PTC THERAPEUTIC | PTCT | -0.99 | -1.5 | 14.88% | Tuesday | AMC |
RESOLUTE ENERGY | REN | 0.8 | -0.75 | -367.86% | Tuesday | AMC |
RUBICON PROJECT | RUBI | N/A | 0.54 | 575.00% | Tuesday | AMC |
TRITON INTL LTD | TRTN | 0.26 | 0.51 | -100.00% | Tuesday | AMC |
EVERI HOLDINGS | EVRI | -0.2 | 0.08 | 5.88% | Tuesday | AMC |
KEANE GROUP INC | FRAC | -0.32 | N/A | N/A | Tuesday | AMC |
ROSETTA STONE | RST | N/A | -0.26 | 62.50% | Tuesday | AMC |
SIENTRA INC | SIEN | -0.52 | -0.78 | 0.00% | Tuesday | AMC |
HOSTESS BRANDS | TWNK | 0.13 | N/A | N/A | Tuesday | AMC |
NEOPHOTONICS CP | NPTN | 0.03 | 0.11 | -200.00% | Tuesday | AMC |
KURA ONCOLOGY | KURA | -0.39 | -0.42 | 9.76% | Tuesday | AMC |
FTD COS INC | FTD | N/A | 0.4 | 550.00% | Tuesday | AMC |
CHINA LODGING | HTHT | 0.23 | 0.17 | 10.71% | Tuesday | AMC |
RWE AG -SP ADR | RWEOY | N/A | N/A | N/A | Tuesday | N/A |
PRUDENTIAL PLC | PUK | N/A | N/A | N/A | Tuesday | N/A |
TITAN INTL INC | TWI | -0.08 | -0.38 | -38.46% | Wednesday | BTO |
VOYAGER THERAPT | VYGR | -0.43 | -0.67 | 14.63% | Wednesday | BTO |
ACLARIS THERAPT | ACRS | -0.59 | -0.28 | 26.47% | Wednesday | BTO |
AIMMUNE THERAPT | AIMT | -0.46 | -0.39 | -20.45% | Wednesday | BTO |
ABRAXAS PETE/NV | AXAS | -0.01 | -0.02 | 50.00% | Wednesday | BTO |
SITEONE LANDSCP | SITE | N/A | N/A | -14.29% | Wednesday | BTO |
HARVEST CAP CRD | HCAP | 0.4 | 0.54 | 38.24% | Wednesday | BTO |
NEONODE INC | NEON | -0.01 | -0.06 | -400.00% | Wednesday | BTO |
OFS CAPITAL CRP | OFS | 0.35 | 0.46 | -8.11% | Wednesday | BTO |
BAVARIAN NORDIC | BVNRY | 0.17 | 0 | N/A | Wednesday | BTO |
BELLATRIX EXPLR | BXE | -0.05 | -0.03 | 16.67% | Wednesday | BTO |
CHRISTOPHER&BNK | CBK | -0.45 | -0.24 | 80.00% | Wednesday | BTO |
CONCORDIA INTL | CXRX | N/A | 1.08 | -132.04% | Wednesday | BTO |
GTX INC | GTXI | -0.57 | -0.6 | 0.00% | Wednesday | BTO |
PENN WEST EGY | PWE | N/A | -1.73 | -27.27% | Wednesday | BTO |
E.ON AG-ADR | EONGY | N/A | N/A | N/A | Wednesday | BTO |
ORACLE CORP | ORCL | 0.57 | 0.59 | 0.00% | Wednesday | AMC |
PAPA MURPHYS HL | FRSH | 0.01 | 0.12 | -160.00% | Wednesday | AMC |
INOVIO PHARMAC | INO | -0.29 | -0.25 | -7.69% | Wednesday | AMC |
LATAM AIRLINES | LFL | 0.11 | 0.05 | -60.00% | Wednesday | AMC |
PRIMO WATER CP | PRMW | -0.33 | 0.02 | 0.00% | Wednesday | AMC |
TROVAGENE INC | TROV | -0.29 | -0.27 | -6.25% | Wednesday | AMC |
WILLIAMS-SONOMA | WSM | 1.52 | 1.55 | 2.60% | Wednesday | AMC |
RING ENERGY INC | REI | 0.02 | -0.05 | 100.00% | Wednesday | AMC |
ALARM.COM HLDGS | ALRM | 0.12 | 0.13 | 60.00% | Wednesday | AMC |
ATHENE HOLDING | ATH | 1.16 | N/A | N/A | Wednesday | AMC |
CATALYST PHARMA | CPRX | -0.07 | -0.07 | 16.67% | Wednesday | AMC |
EVOKE PHARMA | EVOK | -0.16 | -0.37 | 11.11% | Wednesday | AMC |
GUESS INC | GES | 0.42 | 0.57 | -21.43% | Wednesday | AMC |
AVID TECH INC | AVID | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.00% | Wednesday | AMC |
CORINDUS VASCLR | CVRS | -0.08 | -0.06 | -16.67% | Wednesday | AMC |
CONTANGO OIL&GS | MCF | -0.23 | -2.19 | -161.90% | Wednesday | AMC |
AETERNA ZENTARS | AEZS | -0.85 | -1.46 | 17.57% | Wednesday | AMC |
AROTECH CORP | ARTX | 0.02 | 0.05 | 700.00% | Wednesday | AMC |
MAGICJACK VOCTC | CALL | 0.15 | 0.29 | 109.09% | Wednesday | AMC |
CAPRICOR THERAP | CAPR | -0.24 | -0.21 | -7.41% | Wednesday | AMC |
GRIDSUM HOLDING | GSUM | 0 | N/A | -288.89% | Wednesday | AMC |
HERITAGE INSUR | HRTG | -0.22 | 0.66 | -13.95% | Wednesday | AMC |
JABIL CIRCUIT | JBL | 0.36 | 0.46 | 18.97% | Wednesday | AMC |
KLONDEX MINES | KLDX | N/A | 0.05 | 33.33% | Wednesday | AMC |
PFENEX INC | PFNX | -0.68 | -0.37 | 343.33% | Wednesday | AMC |
PENN VA CP | PVAC | 0.3 | N/A | N/A | Wednesday | AMC |
SHARPSPRING INC | SHSP | -0.12 | -0.54 | -25.00% | Wednesday | AMC |
SYNACOR INC | SYNC | -0.1 | -0.01 | N/A | Wednesday | AMC |
YIRENDAI LTD | YRD | -0.03 | 0.25 | 750.00% | Wednesday | AMC |
CONATUS PHARMA | CNAT | -0.32 | -0.3 | 6.06% | Wednesday | AMC |
PRIMERO MINING | PPP | N/A | 0 | -500.00% | Wednesday | N/A |
DOLLAR GENERAL | DG | 1.41 | 1.3 | -3.26% | Thursday | BTO |
CELSION CORP | CLSN | -0.19 | -0.24 | -21.05% | Thursday | BTO |
B2GOLD CORP | BTG | 0.03 | 0 | 25.00% | Thursday | BTO |
HISTOGENICS CP | HSGX | -0.47 | -0.63 | 17.74% | Thursday | BTO |
MEDLEY MGMT INC | MDLY | 0.16 | 0.14 | -12.50% | Thursday | BTO |
PROTALIX BIOTHR | PLX | -0.11 | N/A | 30.00% | Thursday | BTO |
PATHEON NV | PTHN | 0.2 | N/A | 17.14% | Thursday | BTO |
US PHYSICAL THR | USPH | 0.47 | 0.48 | -6.12% | Thursday | BTO |
HEIDELBERGCEMNT | HDELY | N/A | N/A | 30.00% | Thursday | BTO |
JA SOLAR HOLDGS | JASO | -0.07 | 0.5 | 400.00% | Thursday | BTO |
LIGHTINTHEBOX-A | LITB | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.00% | Thursday | BTO |
XBIOTECH INC | XBIT | -0.42 | -0.37 | 17.39% | Thursday | BTO |
KARYOPHARM THER | KPTI | -0.65 | -0.81 | 13.75% | Thursday | BTO |
INSYS THERAP | INSY | -0.05 | 0.22 | 20.00% | Thursday | BTO |
OSISKO GOLD LTD | OR | 0.06 | 0.09 | 33.33% | Thursday | BTO |
LUFTHANSA -ADR | DLAKY | N/A | N/A | N/A | Thursday | BTO |
RENTECH INC | RTK | N/A | -0.48 | -121.05% | Thursday | BTO |
ADOBE SYSTEMS | ADBE | 0.72 | 0.52 | 15.28% | Thursday | AMC |
CALERES INC | CAL | 0.4 | 0.26 | -1.22% | Thursday | AMC |
SMART SAND INC | SND | 0.5 | N/A | -100.00% | Thursday | AMC |
BIOAMBER INC | BIOA | -0.19 | -0.4 | -18.18% | Thursday | AMC |
FATE THERAPEUTC | FATE | -0.29 | -0.26 | 3.57% | Thursday | AMC |
CATABASIS PHARM | CATB | -0.49 | -0.63 | 16.92% | Thursday | AMC |
VIVINT SOLAR | VSLR | -0.42 | -0.5 | 21.74% | Thursday | AMC |
EXONE CO/THE | XONE | -0.04 | -0.08 | -27.78% | Thursday | AMC |
EXA CORP | EXA | -0.04 | -0.1 | 125.00% | Thursday | AMC |
AQUAVENTURE HLD | WAAS | -0.19 | N/A | N/A | Thursday | AMC |
WESTMORELAND CO | WLB | 1.15 | -1.06 | -239.39% | Thursday | AMC |
BIOTIME INC | BTX | -0.18 | -0.16 | 60.00% | Thursday | AMC |
CUMULUS MEDIA | CMLS | -0.61 | -0.48 | -737.50% | Thursday | AMC |
FUTUREFUEL CORP | FF | N/A | 0.68 | 20.83% | Thursday | AMC |
GSV CAPITAL CP | GSVC | N/A | -0.24 | N/A | Thursday | AMC |
LUNA INNOVATION | LUNA | 0 | -0.02 | -100.00% | Thursday | AMC |
TPI COMPOSITES | TPIC | -0.09 | N/A | 200.00% | Thursday | AMC |
TIFFANY & CO | TIF | 1.37 | 1.46 | 13.43% | Friday | BTO |
BIODELIVERY SCI | BDSI | -0.27 | 0.2 | -15.38% | Friday | BTO |
VUZIX CORP | VUZI | -0.15 | -0.24 | -60.00% | Friday | BTO |
TSAKOS EGY NAVG | TNP | 0.06 | 0.41 | -100.00% | Friday | BTO |
Note: Sheraz Mian regularly provides earnings analysis on Zacks.com and appears frequently in the print and electronic media. In addition to this Earnings Preview ...
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