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Introduction
 

Cannabis MSOs (Multi-State Operators) have risen sharply in the past 3 days largely on the speculation that the DEA may reclassify cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III in late 2025 or early 2026, which would dramatically reduce tax burdens under Section 280E, allowing MSOs to deduct normal business expenses dramatically improving profitability. In addition, investors have grown more confident that SAFE Banking legislation, will be passed under the Trump administration which would allow cannabis firms access to traditional banking reducing operational friction and cost.

Key Catalysts Behind the Rally MTD
 

1. Re-scheduling Momentum
   • Speculation intensified that the DEA may reclassify cannabis from Schedule I to Schedule III in late 2025 or early 2026.which would dramatically reduce tax burdens under Section 280E, allowing MSOs to deduct normal business expenses—dramatically improving profitability.
2. SAFE Banking Hopes
   • Investors grew more confident that SAFE Banking legislation, which would allow cannabis firms access to traditional banking reducing operational friction and cost, would pass under the new administration.
   • Trump’s support for rescheduling and Florida legalization have added fuel to the fire.
3. Valuation Re-Rating
   • The largest MSOs are trading at EV/EBITDA multiples around 4.4x, far below their historical averages of 8–9x, which is seen as a great buying opportunity, especially for those MSOs with positive cash-flow and no near-term debt maturities.
4. Technical Bounce and Oversold Conditions
   • The past 2 days are undergoing a technical bounce driven by short covering and bargain hunting.
5. Investor Sentiment Shift
   • The market began to reprice the long-term potential of U.S. cannabis, recognizing that even slow-moving reform could unlock significant upside.

Company-Specific Catalysts & Performances MTD
 

In addition to the overall market catalysts, as mentioned above, the 6 largest cap, vertically integrated multi-state operator (MSOs) constituents in our American Cannabis MSO Stocks Portfolio are highlighted below as to their performances MTD, in descending order, and the specific catalysts for their declines:

1. Verano Holdings (VRNOF): UP 57.9% MTD
   • Catalyst: Verano is scheduled to report Q2 2025 earnings on August 7, and investors are positioning ahead of the release.as the prior quarter showed a surprise EPS beat, which raised expectations for another strong showing.
2. Curaleaf Holdings (CURLF): UP 42.2% MTD 
   • Catalyst: Curaleaf is set to release its quarterly earnings on August 7, and investors are speculating on a positive report.
3. Trulieve Cannabis (TCNNF): UP 27.6% MTD
   • Catalyst: Trulieve is set to report its Q2 2025 earnings on August 6, and investors are positioning ahead of the release in hopes of a positive surprise.
4. TerrAscend Corp. (TSNDF): UP 26.8% MTD
   • ​​​​​​​Catalyst: Analysts have given TerrAscend a Strong Buy rating across the board, with an average price target suggesting an upside potential of 230% with the highest target implying a potential 318% gain, which attracted speculative and institutional interest.
5. Green Thumb Industries (GTBIF): UP 22.2% MTD 
   • Catalyst: Green Thumb's Q2 2025 earnings release is scheduled for August 6, sparking investor interest ahead of the report.
6. Cresco Labs (CRLBF): UP 18.3% MTD
   • ​​​​​​​Catalyst: Cresco is releasing its Q2 2025 financial results on August 7 prompting investors to position ahead of the event given that the company has shown signs of operational improvement, and traders are anticipating a potential upside surprise.

Summary  
 

Our American Cannabis MSO Stocks Portfolio has gone UP 27.5% MTD.