June Update: American Cannabis MSO Index Fell 23%: Now -58% YTD

The American cannabis MSO sector continues to decline month after month and, once again, touched 52-week lows in June.

The American MSO Pot Stock Index consists of the 13 largest pure-play, vertically integrated multi-state operators whose stocks trade for at least US$1/share, have a market cap of at least US$200M (Goodness Growth is less but will soon be owned by, and incorporated into, Verano), and trade on one or more of the Canadian and/or American stock exchanges. Below are the performances of the constituents in June and YTD, in descending order:

  1. Goodness Growth (GDNSF): DOWN 16.9% in June; DOWN 34.0% YTD 
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: +74%
    • Analyst Consensus: None following GDNSF
  2. Curaleaf (CURLF): DOWN 17.9% in June; DOWN 44.4% YTD
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: +59%
    • Analyst Consensus: 22 stock analysts currently rate CURLF as a BUY
    • Recent Analysis/Commentary: Go here
  3. Acreage (ACRDF/ACRHF): DOWN 18.6% in June; DOWN 38.6% YTD
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: +73%
    • Analyst Consensus: None following Acreage
    • Recent Analysis/Commentary: Go here
  4. Ayr Wellness (AYRWF): DOWN 19.2% in June; DOWN 67.3% YTD
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: +73%
    • Analyst Consensus: none following AYRWF
    • Recent Analysis/Commentary: Go here
  5. Jushi (JUSHF): DOWN 19.8% in June; DOWN 56.3% YTD
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: +74%
    • Analyst Consensus: None following JUSHI
    • Latest Analyses/Commentaries: Go here
  6. Trulieve (TCNNF): DOWN 21.1% in June; DOWN 55.7% YTD
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: +67%
    • Analyst Consensus: 24 stock analysts currently rate TCNNF as a BUY
    • Recent Analysis/Commentary: Go here
  7. Planet 13 (PLNHF): DOWN 22.8% in June; DOWN 61.1% YTD
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: 37%
    • Analyst Consensus: 10 stock analysts currently rate PLNHF as a BUY
    • Recent Analysis/Commentary: Go here
  8. Verano (VRNOF): DOWN 27.9% in June; DOWN 54.8% YTD 
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: +59%
    • Analyst Consensus: None following VRNOF
    • Recent Analysis/Commentary: Go here
      • Recent Analysis/Commentary: Go here
  9. Green Thumb (GTBIF): DOWN 28.7% in June; DOWN 63.6% YTD 
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: less than 13%
    • Analyst Consensus: 23 stock analysts currently rate GTBIF as a BUY
    • Recent Analysis/Commentary: Go here
  10. Columbia Care (CCHWF): DOWN 30.2% in June; DOWN 53.1% YTD 
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: +74%
    • Analyst Consensus: None following CCHWF
    • Recent Article Analyses/Commentaries: Go here
  11. Cresco (CRLBF): DOWN 31.6% in June; DOWN 62.1% YTD
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: +71%
    • Analyst Consensus: None following CRLBF
  12. Ascend Wellness (AAWH): DOWN 36.0% in June; DOWN 70.8% YTD
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: +77%
    • Analyst Consensus: 5 stock analysts currently rate AAWH as a BUY
    • Recent Article Analyses/Commentaries: Go here
  13. TerrAscend (TRSSF): DOWN 38.4% in June; DOWN 62.7% YTD
    • Chance of Financial Distress in the next 2 years: +67%
    • Analyst Consensus: None following TRSSF
    • Recent Analyses/Commentaries: Go here

The American MSO Pot Stock Index fell 23.4% in June and is now DOWN 57.4% YTD. In comparison, the 5 constituents in the Canadian Pure-play LP Pot Stock Index fell 28.0% in June, on average, and is now DOWN 58.9% YTD (See article here for details).

The above stock performances have largely echoed that of the broader market but the stocks have also suffered as legislation to legalize weed on the U.S. federal level languishes in Congress.

Senate's version of the MORE Act, called the Cannabis Administration and Opportunity Act (CAOA), was postponed until later in the session by Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer to give him more time to rally support for the bill from a few Republicans to ensure its passage - and that is not a foregone conclusion. If passed, CAOA would a) end the federal ban on cannabis, b) leave legalization up to the states, c) decriminalize marijuana, and d) would allow banks and other financial institutions to provide banking services to cannabis companies which, currently, are subject to criminal prosecution under federal law.

If history is any guide, however, the emotional negative reaction to the delay in the introduction of favorable legislation suggests that now might be a good time to consider taking positions in one or more of the cannabis stocks mentioned above as there could well be a significant runup in their prices just prior to the introduction of the proposed CAOA scheduled before the end of July.

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