Index and bond charts courtesy of Investing.Com, annotations by Mish

JPMorgan Misses Earnings Estimates

The Wall Street Journal reports JPMorgan Profit Drops 28% as Bank Signals Concern on Economy.

• 28 percent decline in earnings
• Profit fell to $8.65 billion, or $2.76 per share, falling short of the $2.89-per-share forecast by analysts surveyed by FactSet.
• Revenue rose 1% to $30.72 billion. Analysts expected $31.81 billion.
• In the consumer bank, revenue fell 1% and profit dropped 45%, largely reflecting a release of funds set aside for soured loans in the second quarter of 2021. 

A year ago the bank pulled $3 billion from loan loss provisions boosting earnings to $3.78 per share. 

Today, the bank set aside another $428 million and I suggest that is likely the start of it. 

Jamie Dimon Flashback

On June 2, Jamie Dimon Says U.S. Consumers Still Have Six to Nine Months of Spending Power

JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said U.S. consumers still have some six to nine months of spending power left in their bank accounts but warned of an economic “hurricane” brewing.

The head of the nation’s biggest bank said the recent drop in Americans’ savings rate hadn’t altered his view that the government’s pandemic stimulus is still padding consumers’ wallets. He estimated that some $2 trillion in extra funds are still waiting to be spent. said U.S. consumers still have some six to nine months of spending power left in their bank accounts but warned of an economic “hurricane” brewing.

Hurricane Has Arrived

The hurricane has arrived. And that $2 trillion in savings? 

Perhaps it has been spent.

A Debate Over Excess Savings, How Much Stimulus Still Hasn't Been Spent?

On June 3, I asked A Debate Over Excess Savings, How Much Stimulus Still Hasn't Been Spent?

Big Excess?

Don't be so sure.

Free money that goes to bottom rung households tends to immediately get spent. The higher the rung, the longer the savings remain unspent. This is complicated by the fact that most of the money was supposed to go to lower tiers, and further complicated by corporate fraud, especially in round one.

More importantly, personal spending does not count down payments on homes, mortgage paydowns, stock market or Bitcoin purchases, capital expenses for businesses, drug money, other illegal uses, or money sent to relatives overseas.

Paying down debt is also saving. Money paying down credit card bills also constitutes saving. 

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