It’s Earnings Season

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Earnings season kicked off this morning as the major banks along with Delta (DAL) and UnitedHealth (UNH) have all reported earnings this morning. Concerning bottom-line results, five of the eight companies reporting have exceeded results, but only four of the eight managed to exceed top-line results. Of the companies reporting, only JP Morgan (JPM) is trading higher, and the biggest loser has been UnitedHealth (UNH) which is down over 5%, and given its high share price, that is having a large impact on Dow futures this morning.

Futures for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are also lower this morning, and that’s partly a result of earnings news but also rising tensions in the Middle East as a US-led group launched airstrikes in Yemen on Houthi targets. As you might guess, oil prices have spiked higher in response, and as of this morning are trading up just about 4%.

In economic news, PPI for December was just released, and unlike yesterday’s CPI, the numbers were weaker than expected. At the headline level, PPI declined 0.1% on a m/m basis (+0.1% expected) and rose 1.0% on a y/y basis (1.3% expected). Core PPI was also weaker with the m/m reading coming in unchanged (0.2% expected) and rising 1.8% y/y (2.0% expected).

Everyone loves a three-day weekend, right? While you would think that, there is not much to like about the equity market’s historical performance during the holiday-shortened week coinciding with Martin Luther King Jr Day. While President Reagan signed the holiday into law as a Federal Holiday in 1983, it wasn’t until 1998 that the stock market started to close in observance of the holiday. The chart below shows the performance of the S&P 500 from the Friday before MLK Jr Day through the Friday after. As shown, the median performance has been a decline of 0.32% with gains just 38% of the time. The worst of those weeks was just two years ago when the S&P 500 declined 5.7% in the four-trading day week. While the holiday week has historically been weak, it is worth pointing out that the period leading up to the holiday has typically been better. On a month-to-date basis through the Friday before MLK Jr Day, the S&P 500’s median performance since 1998 has been a gain of 0.88% with positive returns 59% of the time.

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