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Key Takeaways

• Chipotle opened 61 units in Q2 2025, with 47 featuring its high-efficiency Chipotlane format.
• Same-store sales dipped 4% in Q2, and full-year comps are now expected to be flat despite new store strength.
• International units have shown strong performance, but rising fast-casual competition may add pressure to the company's growth path.

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG - Free Report) has continued to double down on its aggressive unit expansion, as the company opened 61 new restaurants in second-quarter 2025 alone, including 47 with its high-efficiency Chipotlane format. 

Management reaffirmed its long-term goal of reaching 7,000 restaurants in the United States and Canada, alongside deeper forays into international markets such as Europe and the Middle East. 

In the near-term, growth in unit count has been clashing with softer consumer demand. Comparable sales dipped 4% in second-quarter 2025. Despite positive transaction trends exiting the quarter, management now expects full-year comps to be flat. New store productivity, however, has remained strong, holding at more than 80% of existing unit levels, providing some reassurance on the quality of its openings.

Chipotle’s infrastructure investments, such as the rollout of high-efficiency kitchen equipment, aim to boost throughput and prep efficiency, which could support the scaling effort. Internationally, early results have been promising. Units in Kuwait exceeded the U.S. average unit volumes, and Canada’s performance mirrored domestic economics. These pockets of strength may suggest that there is still room to grow.

Still, translating expansion into consistent same-store growth has remained the key challenge. While the long runway for physical growth has stayed intact, the near-term success of Chipotle’s strategy will hinge on regaining sales momentum and proving that each new restaurant enhances, not dilutes, the brand’s value proposition.

Competitive Pressures Add Spice to Chipotle’s Growth Challenge

As Chipotle has pursued rapid expansion, competition from other fast-casual players has been intensifying, especially those targeting similar markets with value-driven offerings.

Shake Shack (SHAK - Free Report) is one such rival, as it has been aggressively expanding both domestically and internationally. While its menu and pricing skew slightly higher, Shake Shack has been investing heavily in digital channels and format innovation, such as drive-throughs and kiosks, mirroring Chipotle’s own tech-forward approach. Its emphasis on hospitality and premium ingredients likely appeals to the same urban, quality-seeking customer base.

Sweetgreen (SG - Free Report), meanwhile, has been carving out a niche among health-conscious diners with a tech-enabled, bowl-based concept. Though smaller in scale, Sweetgreen’s rapid unit growth and focus on automation (via Infinite Kitchen) could pose a threat, especially in suburban markets where Chipotle has traditionally thrived.

Both competitors highlight the growing crowd in the fast-casual space — meaning Chipotle’s expansion must be matched with continued brand relevance, operational efficiency, and value perception to stay ahead.

Chipotle’s Price Performance, Valuation, and Estimates

Chipotle’s shares have lost 26.5% in the past six months compared with the industry’s decline of 5.4%.

Price Performance

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

From a valuation standpoint, Chipotle stock has been trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 4.43X, which is above from the industry’s average.

Price-to-Sales Ratio (Forward 12-Month)

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Chipotle's 2025 and 2026 earnings implies a year-over-year uptick of 8% and 17.4%, respectively.

Image Source: Zacks Investment Research

Chipotle stock currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) rating.

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