Photo by Steve Johnson on Unsplash

After spending much of 2023 and early 2024 trying to shake off the “AI laggard” label, Alphabet (GOOGL) now looks closer than ever to taking the lead in artificial intelligence. The company has pulled off one of the biggest turnarounds in tech – moving from being doubted to being viewed as a frontrunner for the next decade of AI.

Confidence jumped even higher after Berkshire Hathaway revealed a significant new stake in Alphabet. Combined with prediction markets showing an over 90% chance that Gemini 3.0 will launch within days, it seems Wall Street is preparing for a moment that could confirm what many are now asking: Is Google about to become the clear leader in AI, and is Gemini 3.0 the breakthrough no one is fully expecting?

The excitement is building fast. Early testers on X have called Gemini 3.0 a “game-changer,” noting major improvements in reasoning, coding, and creative tasks. If this holds true, Gemini 3.0 could significantly widen Google’s advantage across Search, YouTube, Android, and Cloud – especially as more companies adopt Google’s AI stack powered by custom TPUs and a massive global data-center network.

Unlike rivals dealing with compute shortages or financial pressure, Google has the scale, cash, and infrastructure to push advanced AI worldwide. Berkshire’s investment only reinforces belief in Google’s long-term vision.

Still, the idea that Google could leap ahead in the AI race sparks debate. Supporters say Alphabet has the strongest long-term foundation – huge distribution across its ecosystem and accelerating growth in major segments.

Critics worry expectations may be running hot, especially with Alphabet near all-time highs and facing regulatory pressure. Competitors like OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta continue innovating quickly, and the high cost of training frontier models remains a challenge for everyone.

This mix of strong momentum and rising expectations is what makes this moment so important. Alphabet just delivered its first-ever quarter above $100 billion in revenue with record profits.

Search, YouTube, and Cloud all accelerated, Cloud’s backlog reached $158 billion, Waymo is expanding across major U.S. cities, and AI upgrades are rolling out across Search, Maps, and Android. Everything points to an AI-driven growth cycle that is still in its early stages.

With Gemini 3.0 expected this week, and Berkshire Hathaway now onboard, Alphabet sits at the center of the global AI conversation. Billions of people use Google’s ecosystem daily, giving the company a rare opportunity to reshape how the world searches, learns, creates, and works.

Whether Alphabet becomes the world’s most valuable company, or faces tougher regulatory and competitive battles, will depend heavily on what Gemini 3.0 delivers next. One thing is clear: the world is watching, and this could be the moment Google proves it’s ready to lead the AI era.

Let’s deep dive further by using the 'Invest Diva Diamond Analysis' (IDDA) framework.

IDDA Point 1 & 2: Capital & Intentional

Before investing in Alphabet, ask yourself the following:

• Do you want exposure to a company with unmatched distribution – Search, YouTube, Android – supercharging its entire ecosystem with AI?
• Are you comfortable owning a stock where AI performance (like Gemini 3.0) could significantly influence future growth?
• Do you believe Google’s scale, data advantage, and TPU-driven cloud infrastructure will keep it ahead in the AI race?

For long-term investors, Alphabet offers a powerful blend of innovation, financial strength, and global reach. Its AI integration is already driving real business acceleration, not just theoretical promise. For shorter-term investors, volatility may appear around the Gemini 3.0 launch, especially given the high expectations priced in.

Before investing, it’s important to consider your own goals and risk tolerance. Alphabet’s strong fundamentals and strategic edge make it a compelling player for those seeking long term AI exposure – but like all high growth tech, it may not suit every strategy. If Gemini 3.0 delivers as early testers suggest, Alphabet may be writing the opening chapter of the next major era in artificial intelligence.

IDDA Point 3: Fundamental

Alphabet continues to strengthen its leadership in AI across all its products, with Gemini 3.0 shaping up to be a major turning point for the company. Early testers say the model is a big step forward in complex reasoning, coding, and understanding different types of inputs, which boosts Google’s advantage across Search, YouTube, Cloud, and Android.

Since billions of people already use Google products every day, any improvement to Gemini immediately expands Alphabet’s impact and ability to earn more. Berkshire Hathaway’s new multi-billion-dollar investment adds another strong signal of confidence from one of the world’s most respected investors.

AI is already lifting the performance of Google’s main businesses. Search and YouTube advertising are both rising strongly, subscriptions and devices are growing quickly, and people are clicking on more ads than at any point since 2023.

Google Cloud is also one of Alphabet’s strongest growth engines, continuing to expand rapidly with a massive $158 billion backlog of customer commitments. With Gemini 3.0 rolling out across Google’s products, this growth is expected to continue as more companies adopt Google’s AI tools, rely on its TPUs, and move more work into Google Cloud.

Alphabet’s financial strength remains one of its biggest advantages. The company recently delivered its first ever quarter with over $100 billion in revenue, while still achieving record profits. With huge cash reserves, very low debt, and strong cash generation, Google can continue investing heavily in data centers, TPUs, and advanced AI models without the financial pressure that many competitors face.

This financial stability is also part of why Berkshire Hathaway invested; Alphabet has the resources to turn AI and cloud adoption into reliable long-term earnings, even during periods of economic or regulatory uncertainty.

Google is also bringing AI deeper into everyday consumer products like Google Maps. Maps now uses Gemini and live data to predict which EV chargers will be available when you arrive, suggest popular places nearby, and provide helpful “know before you go” tips for restaurants, hotels, and venues. Drivers can ask conversational questions while navigating, get proactive traffic alerts, report incidents hands-free, and receive clearer directions based on nearby landmarks.

Additionally, with Lens + Gemini, users can point their camera at any building or location and instantly learn what it is and why it matters. These upgrades make Maps more personal, more helpful, and harder for competitors to match.

Despite ongoing regulatory challenges and the high cost of building AI infrastructure, Alphabet’s overall picture remains very strong. Growth is picking up across major business areas, AI is becoming deeply embedded across Google’s entire ecosystem, cloud demand continues to rise, and Berkshire Hathaway’s stake adds new confidence from long-term investors.

With the launch of Gemini 3.0, the settlement with Epic Games reducing legal uncertainty, and strong cloud momentum, Alphabet now has a clearer path toward sustained growth. With forecasts showing revenue potentially reaching over $500 billion and earnings nearing $150 billion by 2028, Alphabet looks well positioned to lead the next decade of AI-driven technology and global digital infrastructure.

• Fundamental risk: Low

IDDA Point 4: Sentimental

Strengths:

• Berkshire Hathaway’s New Ownership Signals Strong Institutional Confidence – Warren Buffett’s team taking a multi-billion-dollar stake reinforces a long-term belief in Alphabet’s earnings power, balance sheet, and leadership in AI.
• Gemini 3.0 Is Driving a Major Momentum Shift – Early testers and prediction markets suggest Gemini 3.0 may outperform ChatGPT and other models, accelerating Google’s advantage across Search, Maps, YouTube, Android, and Cloud.
• Ecosystem-Wide AI Integration Builds an Unmatched Moat – From predictive EV charging in Maps to landmark-based navigation, conversational driving queries, and Lens + Gemini, Google is embedding AI into everyday products billions of people use, creating deeper stickiness and monetization opportunities.

Risks:

• Sky-High Expectations Around Gemini 3.0 Could Lead to Disappointment – With excitement reaching peak levels, any underperformance or rollout hiccups could trigger a sentiment pullback.
• Regulatory & Legal Pressures Remain Significant – Despite progress like the Epic Games settlement, Alphabet still faces antitrust scrutiny across the U.S. and Europe that could impact ads, Play Store economics, and long-term margins.
• Heavy AI Capital Spending Is Driving Up Costs – Supporting TPUs, data centers, and frontier model training requires enormous investment. If monetization lags, margins may come under pressure, even with rising revenue.

Investor sentiment around Alphabet has shifted dramatically, and much of it revolves around growing excitement for Gemini 3.0 and the confidence signaled by Berkshire Hathaway’s new stake. Many investors now see Google as a company that is not only catching up in AI, but potentially taking the lead, especially as early testers claim Gemini 3.0 feels like a major breakthrough.

This has created a wave of optimism, and a bit of FOMO, as Alphabet continues to roll out AI upgrades across Search, Maps, YouTube, Android, and Cloud. At the same time, the stock has recently been trading near all-time highs, which has some investors wondering whether expectations may be getting too enthusiastic.

Others may point to ongoing regulatory challenges and the high cost of AI development as reasons to stay cautious. Still, the overall mood has clearly tilted positive, with many believing Alphabet’s scale, data advantage, and product ecosystem give it a unique opportunity to shape the next generation of AI technology and possibly rise to the top of the tech world.

• Sentimental risk: Medium

IDDA Point 5: Technical

On the weekly chart:

• The trend remains bullish, with the price recently hitting a new high of $303.81.
• The Ichimoku cloud is bullish and wide, signalling strong upward momentum.
• The price is currently far above the cloud, which acts as a support zone – this distance may indicate a potential correction or pullback.

The weekly chart shows that Alphabet has been in a broader bullish trend since 2023. After trending strongly through 2023 and early 2024, the stock entered a choppy consolidation phase between July 2024 and early 2025. The uptrend resumed around April 2025 and has continued since, pushing to a new high of $293.95. With candles well above a bullish cloud, momentum remains strong, though a pullback wouldn’t be surprising.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

On the daily chart:

• The daily trend remains upward, with the stock recently pushing to a fresh high of $303.81.
• The Ichimoku cloud is clearly bullish and expanding, indicating solid momentum behind the move.
• However, the price is stretched well above the cloud, which shows strong buyers but also suggests the possibility of a near-term pause or pullback.

On the daily chart, the uptrend that began around April 2025 is still intact, though momentum appears to be slowing after hitting the recent high. The candles look to be consolidating or plateauing, indicating a potential pause in the rally. Still, with a bullish cloud and candles positioned above it, the broader upward trend remains in place – likely continuing with periodic pullbacks.
 

(Click on image to enlarge)

Investors looking to get into Alphabet stock can consider these Buy Limit Entries:

• Recent market price of $292.81 (high fill probability)
• $257.13 (moderate fill probability)
• $234.60 (low fill probability)

Meanwhile, investors looking to take profit can consider these Sell Limit Levels:

• $330.17 (high fill probability)
• $352.54 (moderate fill probability)
• $370.97 (low fill probability)

Here are the Invest Diva ‘Confidence Compass’ questions to ask yourself before buying at each level:

1. If I buy at this price and the price drops by another 50%, how would I feel? Would I panic, or would I buy more to dollar-cost average at lower prices? Hint: these questions also reveal your confidence in the asset you’re planning to invest in.
2. If I don’t buy at this price and the stock suddenly turns around and starts going up again, will I beat myself up for not having bought at this level?

Remember: Investing is personal, and what is right for me might not be right for you. Always do your own due diligence. You should only invest based on your own risk tolerance and your timeframe for reaching your portfolio goals

• Technical risk: Low to medium
   

Final Thoughts on Alphabet

Alphabet’s resurgence in the AI race, once marked by doubt and criticism, has now become one of the most compelling narratives in modern tech. With the upcoming launch of Gemini 3.0 and a bold new stake from Berkshire Hathaway, Google has re-entered the spotlight as a potential frontrunner in the AI era.

The company is rapidly transforming its vast ecosystem – Search, YouTube, Android, Cloud, and Maps – by embedding Gemini’s capabilities into products used by billions of people worldwide. Strong momentum across its core businesses, record-breaking financial performance, and a rapidly expanding AI and cloud footprint all reinforce Alphabet’s growing strength. Unlike many competitors, Google possesses the scale, cash reserves, and infrastructure needed to deliver frontier AI globally.

However, challenges persist. Alphabet still faces regulatory scrutiny in the U.S. and Europe, heavy capital requirements for AI expansion, and fierce competition from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, and others – all pushing the boundaries of what AI can do. High expectations surrounding Gemini 3.0 also raise the risk of short-term volatility if the rollout doesn’t fully meet market hype.

Technically, Alphabet’s chart shows a strong uptrend, but with the stock stretched far above the Ichimoku cloud, a moderate pullback is possible before further upside continues. Long-term momentum remains intact, but short-term fluctuations should be expected.

Key Takeaways

Alphabet’s accelerating AI integration and the upcoming Gemini 3.0 launch signal a defining moment in the company’s evolution. Bulls see Google as uniquely positioned with unmatched distribution, a powerful data advantage, and renewed confidence from institutional giants like Berkshire Hathaway.

Bears point to regulatory risks, rising AI costs, and intensifying competition that could pressure margins and expectations. For both long-term and short-term investors, Alphabet stands out as a high-quality, AI-driven growth story backed by enormous scale and financial strength. Pullbacks may offer attractive opportunities, especially as the market reacts to the Gemini 3.0 rollout and the broader AI narrative continues to evolve.

• Overall stock risk: Low to medium

If you enjoyed this article, you’ll love my post on Nvidia.

 

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