Intermediate-Term Forecast For Sunday, May 2

We are nine weeks into the rally phase of the intermediate-term cycle that began during the week ending March 5.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart Analysis

The magnitude and duration of the previous rally phase reconfirm the current bullish intermediate-term trend and forecast additional gains. The following technical and cycle analyses provide intermediate-term forecasts for the S&P 500 index. For short-term outlooks, see the latest short-term forecast.

Technical Analysis

The index closed slightly higher this week, holding near recent highs of the uptrend from October. Technical indicators are bullish overall, strongly favoring a continuation of the advance.

Cycle Analysis

We are nine weeks into the rally phase of the cycle following the intermediate-term cycle low (ITCL) that occurred during the week ending March 5. The magnitude and duration of the previous rally phase reconfirm the current bullish translation and forecast additional gains. The window during which the next ITCL is likely to occur is from June 25 to August 27, with our best estimate being in the July 23 to August 20 range.

  • Last ITCL: March 5, 2021.
  • Cycle Duration: Nine weeks.
  • Cycle Translation: Bullish.
  • Next ITCL Window: June 25 to August 27; best estimate in the July 23 to August 20 range.
  • Setup Status: No active setups.
  • Trigger Status: No pending triggers.
  • Signal Status: No active signals.
  • Stop Level: None active.

  • Bullish Scenario: A weekly close well above current levels would reconfirm the uptrend from October and forecast additional gains. This is the intermediate-term outlook.
  • Bearish Scenario: A reversal and weekly close below the middle of the Bollinger bands at 3,911 would predict a return to the 50-week moving average at 3,566.

The bullish scenario is more likely (~70% probable).

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