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Intel stock (Nasdaq: INTC) jumped nearly 7% on Tuesday following multiple analyst upgrades, with HSBC and Seaport raising ratings on the chipmaker’s sold-out server CPU capacity.

The dual catalysts: explosive artificial intelligence data center demand and proven process technology competitiveness, signal that Intel’s $35 billion foundry bet is finally translating into tangible competitive advantages.

The developments position the semiconductor giant for significant margin expansion and market share recovery in 2026.​

Intel stock: Two engines behind Tuesday’s surge

1. Server CPU capacity is nearly sold out through 2026

KeyBanc analyst John Vinh revealed that Intel has “almost completely sold out” of server processors through 2026 due to unprecedented hyperscaler demand driven by agentic artificial intelligence workloads.

This supply tightness is translating into something Intel hasn’t enjoyed in years: pricing power.

The company is considering 10-15% average selling price increases on server processors, matching AMD’s pricing moves.​

For Intel, this represents a critical inflection point. The company has lost server CPU share to AMD over the past three years.

A sold-out inventory position validates that its Panther Lake and Clearwater Forest Xeons are genuinely competitive with AMD’s offerings, not just cheaper alternatives.​

2. 18A yields have cleared a critical technical threshold

Intel’s 18A manufacturing process has achieved yields above 60%, validating the company’s “Five Nodes in Four Years” roadmap.

The development also proves that two novel technologies, Gate-All-Around transistors and PowerVia backside power delivery, can be manufactured at a commercial scale.​

This is crucial because TSMC’s 2nm process launched at 60-70% yields. Intel hitting 60%+ on its first advanced node, while simultaneously implementing these breakthrough technologies, is a rare achievement.

For context, Samsung’s competing 2nm process remains below 40% yields, meaning Intel has leapfrogged its closest competitor.​

The technical specifics are worth understanding. PowerVia moves power distribution to the back of the wafer, decoupling it from signal routing.

This reduces voltage droop by 30% and enables 6-10% frequency improvements at identical power levels, critical advantages for power-hungry AI chips.​

As per reports, Apple has already qualified Intel’s 18A for low-end M-series processors (production in 2027). Microsoft is contracting 18A for Maia AI accelerators. Amazon is partnering on custom chips.

These aren’t speculative wins; they are binding customer commitments that validate foundry credibility.​

What analysts now see

HSBC upgraded Intel from “Reduce” to “Hold” with a $50 price target, a 92% increase from its prior $26 call.

Seaport Global upgraded to “Buy” with a $65 target, implying 34% upside.

KeyBanc set a $60 target weeks earlier.​

Wall Street’s consensus remains $45.39, suggesting material upside as targets rise post-earnings.

Intel reports fourth-quarter results on January 22, two days after these upgrades, creating immediate visibility on whether management can validate the sold-out narrative and yield claims.​

Execution risk remains, for example, scaling 18A yields while ramping volume is historically difficult. But the foundry momentum is undeniable.

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