Wall Street’s relationship with Intel has been rocky for years. The chip giant has struggled with manufacturing delays, market share losses, and fierce competition from AMD and TSMC.
 

Intel Corporation, INTC

But something changed in 2025. Intel stock surged from a low of $17.67 to over $50, fueled by high-profile deals and fresh momentum in key business segments.

Now analysts are playing catch-up. Citigroup analyst Atif Malik upgraded Intel from “sell” to “hold” this week, setting a $50 price target. TD Cowen followed suit, bumping its target from $38 to $50 while maintaining a “hold” rating.

KeyBanc went further, upgrading Intel to “buy” with a $60 price target. After years of downgrades and skepticism, the tide appears to be turning.

The stock currently trades around $47, giving it a market cap of roughly $234 billion. Shares are down 2.8% on recent trading, but they’ve climbed substantially from 200-day and even 50-day moving averages.

Intel reported third-quarter revenue of $13.65 billion, beating analyst expectations of $13.10 billion. The company posted earnings per share of $0.23 for the quarter. Management set Q4 guidance at $0.08 EPS.

But analysts still expect negative full-year earnings. The consensus forecast for the current fiscal year sits at negative $0.11 per share.

Server CPUs Driving Demand

Strong demand for Intel’s server processors is creating a supply crunch. Reports indicate the company has sold out its 2026 server CPU manufacturing capacity.

This marks a reversal from recent years when AMD steadily grabbed server market share. The capacity shortage suggests enterprise customers are returning to Intel in meaningful numbers.

Intel’s Panther Lake laptop chips will hit the market this month. These processors use the new Intel 18A manufacturing process, which has reached approximately 60% yields according to KeyBanc analysts.

The company says yields are now improving at industry-standard rates. This indicates Intel has successfully brought its advanced manufacturing process to production scale.

Foundry Business Shows Promise

The Intel Foundry segment is attracting fresh analyst attention. Malik sees three factors working in Intel’s favor for foundry business.

First, TSMC faces a shortage of advanced packaging capacity. Companies needing cutting-edge chip manufacturing may turn to Intel as an alternative.

Second, U.S. government investments in domestic chip production create incentives for American companies to use Intel’s services. High-profile deals with government agencies and Nvidia have already injected capital into the business.

Third, companies designing custom AI chips may choose Intel if they can’t secure TSMC capacity. This includes tech giants like Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft who design their own AI processors.

Rumors suggest Apple may use Intel Foundry for some future chips, though nothing has been confirmed. Such a deal would represent a major validation of Intel’s manufacturing capabilities.

Desktop CPU Challenges Remain

Not everything is rosy for Intel. The desktop CPU market presents ongoing problems.

Intel’s Arrow Lake desktop processors have struggled with gaming performance issues. The upcoming Arrow Lake refresh won’t fix these problems, according to analysts.

Desktop systems must wait until Nova Lake launches, likely in late 2026. Meanwhile, AMD continues gaining market share in the enthusiast desktop segment.

Qualcomm is pushing ARM-based chips into the PC market, creating a new competitive threat. Compatibility issues have slowed ARM adoption so far, but the long-term threat remains real.

Rising memory chip prices could also hurt PC demand. AI data centers consume massive amounts of memory, and manufacturers have shifted production capacity to high-bandwidth memory for AI accelerators.

Higher component costs may lead to more expensive PCs, potentially dampening consumer demand. This could make Intel’s PC business recovery more difficult in 2026.

Despite recent upgrades, Wall Street’s consensus rating remains “Reduce” with an average price target of $39.46. Five analysts rate Intel a “buy,” 26 give it a “hold,” and seven assign a “sell” rating.

Loop Capital raised its price target to $50, joining TD Cowen and Citigroup at that level. However, Susquehanna’s target sits around $40, below current market prices.

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