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In the first quarter of this year, Newmont (NEM), the largest gold miner, generated $1.2 billion in free cash flow. That’s a lot in this business.

Q1 financial highlights:

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And it made all that money with an average gold price of $2,944/oz, which is considerably lower than the Q2 price:

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Assuming Newmont’s Q2 production was comparable to Q1 and the Q2 average gold price was about 10% ($300/oz) higher, that implies a sequential revenue increase of about $450 million. So far, so good.

But in its Q1 report, Newmont managed Q2 cash flow expectations downward with the following:

The second quarter will include limited high cost ounces from Porcupine and Akyem, reflecting production prior to the close of those transactions on April 15. Sustaining capital is expected to peak in the second quarter as planned investment ramps up. Compared to the previous quarter, second quarter free cash flow is expected to be adversely impacted by the divestment of the non-core assets, higher tax payments related to increased profitability in previous periods and taxes from the divestments, higher planned development capital at Ahafo North and Cadia, and the continued ramp-up of spending on construction of the Yanacocha water treatment facilities.

Meanwhile, in the same report, Newmont assumed an average 2025 gold price of $2,500/oz, which is turning out to be extremely conservative. So…higher revenue thanks to the ongoing gold bull market, tempered by increased capital spending and taxes.

This, in short, appears to be another good (though perhaps not great) quarter, with upside surprise potential due to the higher gold price. The report will be released on Thursday, July 24.

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