After the market’s close on July 26, the most valuable company will report its third quarter earnings. Apple (AAPL) is expected to report earnings of $1.39 per share on revenue of $41.85 billion. More important than the company’s numbers, though, is how the market reacts to them.

Being such a well-covered stock and one that is widely held, there is a lot of buzz associated with Apple’s quarterly reports. This article intends to cut through the noise by bringing your attention to trends that have emerged throughout Apple’s quarterly earnings.

Again, in my view, more money can be made by focusing on the market’s reaction to news rather than the news itself. After all, it is not an earnings release that moves a stock; rather, it is the reaction to it by other traders and investors.

The study on which this article is focused analyzed the 69 most previous earnings reports from Apple (dating back to 1999). It looked at Apple’s performance in the days prior to the earnings report, as well as the stock’s performance in the days following.

Specifically, the study identified and analyzed instances in which Apple was at a 5, 10, or 20 day high or low (or neither) going into an earnings report, along with the stock’s return 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 days later.

Because Apple reports after the bell, the stock’s performance prior to the earnings release includes the day on which it reports. For example, Apple’s January 15, 2003 earnings report also marked the stock’s lowest closing price over the last 10 trading days. As such, this earnings report was flagged as a 10 day low.

Apple’s post-earnings returns were calculated from the close of the prior session. Sticking with the above example, Apple’s 1 day return is calculated from the close of January 15 to the close of January 16, the stock’s 2 day return is calculated from the close of January 15 to the close of January 17, and so on.

Before delving into the findings of the study, it is first worth noting that Apple has proven to have a slight “bias” toward being positive post earnings. Below is a table showing Apple’s post earnings returns when it was neither at a significant high nor low, composed of 32 instances.

The returns were highest 6 days following the company’s earnings report, so it is worthwhile to zoom in on this portion of the data. Out of 32 instances of Apple being at neither a significant high nor low going into earnings, the stock was higher 6 days later a total of 21 times. This is by no means the best odds in the world (66%), but is definitely better than flipping a coin.

There are also interesting edges that exist on both extremes of the study’s parameters. When Apple is at a 20 day high prior to earnings, the stock has historically been down 1-6 days later with an average return of -1.45% 3 days later. The stock was down 9 out of 14 times (64%), which, again, is not the best odds in the world, but certainly beats a coin toss.

At the opposite end, when Apple was at a 20 day low coming into its earnings release, the stock was down 1-6 days later with an average return of -3.66% 3 days later. This occurred 2 out of 3 times (66%).

Below are tables showing all the findings from the study. I belive that there is also something to be gleaned from times in which Apple was at a 5 day low prior to earnings, as the mean and median returns were overwhelmingly positive.

If nothing else, I hope this article made you think about Apple’s earnings in a different light. In many facets of the stock market there are trends that can help investors make more calculated decisions – albeit something as simple as waiting to buy Apple if it is at a 20 day high going into earnings.