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You know what I’m hearing a lot from the TheoTrade community right now? That classic, Bart Simpson-meets-Donkey-from-Shrek line: “Are we there yet?” Traders are pinging me day in, day out, wanting to know if this is the top—if now’s the moment to short, to exit, to “call it.” Well, let me lay this out for you as directly as I can: asking if we’re at the top is a total waste of time and mental bandwidth. The market doesn’t ring a bell. It doesn’t send you a calendar invite. And it sure as hell doesn’t wait around for you to catch the signal.

This market isn’t moving because of fundamentals or breath or even the latest macro noise. It’s running on one thing and one thing only: liquidity. Algos are in full control. That means good news, bad news, no news—doesn’t matter. The path of least resistance is still up. So instead of trying to time the top, follow the smart play: scale out on strength. Up 1%? Trim 10%. Up another 1%? Trim again. 

Don’t sit around asking if it’s time to short—take action on the way up. Trade with the market, not against it...

Now, that doesn’t mean we’re in the clear. Far from it. What’s coming is a blow-off top. And when it hits, it’ll be obvious—violent, fast, and final. You’ll wake up one morning and see the Spoos up 75 on no news, and by the close, they’ll be down 200. That’s when it ends. Not with a whimper, but with a bang. Advanced Auto Parts gave you a preview: gap up big, then get slaughtered. That’s what it looks like when the party stops. And it will stop.

Meanwhile, we’ve got a massive case of what Raghuram Rajan—someone way smarter than Powell, by the way—calls the Wile E. Coyote moment. The U.S. economy is sprinting beyond its means, and pretty soon, it’s going to look down and realize there’s nothing underfoot. Growth projections for Q4 are laughable—16%? That’s two years of performance crammed into one quarter. Insanity. And when expectations disconnect from reality, gravity always wins.

And let’s not forget: inflation is still a problem. I don’t care what Powell says. AutoNation raised prices 10% and still beat earnings. That’s not disinflation—that’s pricing power gone wild. Eggs are up again. The Fed’s not cutting. They can’t. Not when prices are still ramping.

Your job is to stay nimble. Watch for excess, trade with discipline, and stop waiting for the mythical signal. Blow-off tops are never clean, never polite, and never generous. You’ll know it when you see it—and you’ll probably miss the first 200 points on the way down. That’s fine. Protect your capital.

Until then? Quit asking if we’re there yet.

We’re not.

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